NBA Player Prop Picks: The Best Bets For Monday Night
What we're about to do something you may have never done before and that's bet an NBA turnover prop. Don't worry, if you don't want to do that you can just get down on the other prop I like. But just know, you don't know what you're missing in the turnover game. It's electric. Last season, we only had BetMGM giving us these lines, but this year, DraftKings has joined in the fray. Who knows who else next season? All I do know is these bets will change your life. (In a good way.) Here's what I'm thinking for tonight.
Devonte' Graham Over 2.5 turnovers (+140)
DraftKings is the place to go for this one. If you can only bet at BetMGM, then it's not the end of the world since they have 2.5 +125. But when I'm taking any 2.5 prop, I like the juice to be as high as possible. At +140 over at DraftKings, it's worth shooting for.
I don't think the books have fully adjusted to Graham's role with the Pelicans. He looks to me like he has the ball in his hands for playmaking opportunities more than he did with Charlotte. Like a real point guard instead of a catch-and-shoot type player. This has led to at least three turnovers in each of the first three games this season.
Opponent matters in this market and we have a good one in the Minnesota Timberwolves. I know there has only been a couple games but no team in the NBA has been better in the opponents turnovers per possession metric than Minnesota (24.9%). They are extremely aggressive and it has caused issues for their enemies in both of their games so far. We don't need Graham to do anything ridiculous tonight. Just three turnovers.
Pat Connaughton Over 9.5 points (-128)
I went with FanDuel for this one as they had the best number at the best price. DraftKings isn't far behind with 9.5 for -130, so we could always go there. If you want to hero bet this one, BetMGM is hanging 10.5 at -105. As always, I have the most respect for anyone that will throw down on FanDuel's 15+ points for +370.
Connaughton is not a guy you want to chase, but with Brook Lopez out and Jrue Holiday likely out, he looks good. He's a safe enough bet to crack double digits as he's done it twice in three games this season. I like to keep the bar low for everything I do in life and this bar is pretty low if you ask me.
Through three games this season, only seven teams have allowed their opponents to score more points on a per-game basis than Indiana. That's including a game where they only gave up 91 points to the Miami Heat. The Heat were coming off of a Friday night off (in South Beach) which followed a nationally televised beatdown of the defending champion Bucks. That explains the letdown to me. It wasn't the Pacers' defense. I think this one is played fast and Connaughton has a ho-hum 10-15 points.