NBA Player Prop Picks: The Best Bets For Thursday Night

NBA props expert John Hyslop is here with his top player prop picks at plus-money for Thursday night's NBA action.
John Hyslop
Thu, October 28, 9:19 AM EDT

NBA Player Prop Picks: The Best Bets For Thursday Night

We've got six games on the NBA slate, which is good, but two of them immediately don't count for player prop purposes. Jerami Grant looks like he will return for the Detroit Pistons, so that will throw off everyone's totals. Throw in the fact that there is a blowout potential, and we should be looking at unders. No thanks. The other game we have to throw out is the Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards. At least the Wizards side since Rui Hachimura is likely to play. We have no idea what his role will be, so that is going to throw off those lines. Plus, I don't have an angle.

Still, we have four games left which are plenty. We've got one game on NBA TV at 8:00 pm ET, which is the New York Knicks and Chicago Bulls. We're definitely playing that one. The other is the from the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets at 8:00 pm ET. We've got at least even money on both, so it's time to ride!

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RJ Barrett over 1.5 turnovers (+100)

Bulls vs. Knicks Odds

DraftKings is where this beauty is hanging right now. BetMGM has the same number but at -125, so that's too pricey for me. I want (+) signs everywhere, and to be honest, -125 changes everything. This is an even-money play or better or nothing.

We'll get into points, rebounds, assists, threes, etc., as the season goes on, but right now, turnovers are where all the value is if you ask me. We're getting two instance props at plus money, which I love. Barrett is playing more with the ball in his hands at the moment, which is leading to turnovers. He's had at least two turnovers in his last three games, including four last game.

Now he has to go to Chicago to play a Bulls team that is turning everyone over. On the season, only two teams in the entire NBA are causing more turnovers per possession than Chicago. I think the Bulls come out and try to make a statement tonight. It should lead to at least two RJ Barrett turnovers.

Kevin Porter Jr over 3.5 turnovers (+110)

Rockets vs. Jazz Odds

On this one, we have to go over to BetMGM because they have 3.5 for +110. DraftKings is being a little more respectful, throwing a 2.5 -200 on Porter, but that is way too much juice. Even though we know for a fact Porter Jr will turn it over at least three times, we can't lay down -200. That's crazy talk.

I never like the 3.5 anythings, but I think we're safe here. This kid is an absolute turnover machine. He's like a younger version of Russell Westbrook. The sky is the limit for him in terms of talent, but he gives the ball away like it's his job. In four games so far, he's turned the ball over at least six times in three of them. He's had an eight and nine turnover game as well. That's horrible.

He gets a Jazz team that doesn't turn people over at an elite rate, but they do turn people over. They're right at 14%, so they are far from bad, but turnovers aren't just on the defense. When you're a team like the Rockets that turn the ball over on 18.4% of your possessions, you'll turn it over against anyone. I bet he gets at least two of these on passes thrown out of bounds. We should get home on this number, and it's coming at a really good price.

John Hyslop
@sloprules
John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.
Nov 2021
Record
Wins
5
Losses
2
Push
0
ROI
50.53%
0Betslip

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