Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction: Will Steph Curry Keep the Hot-Hand?
When: 10:00 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: NBA League Pass
Spread: Warriors -7
Warriors vs.Timberwolves Prediction
I am many things, but being above continuing to go with the team that hasn’t let me down on a pick in a while is not one of them.
I have to say; when I first saw this spread, it looked like a misprint. Golden State getting less than double figures, with how they’re playing right now? On the road, perhaps. Or against another solid team, maybe.
But at home, against a Timberwolves team that’s dropped five in a row, both on the court and against the spread? It doesn’t make sense.
Yes, some of the games have been close. The Wolves just took the Grizzlies to overtime on the road, and Memphis, despite sporting a bottom-10 net rating, is solid. The first loss of the streak was a two-point home loss to Denver, another moral victory.
But in between those two, Minnesota got hammered at home by an interesting but still not very good Magic team before dropping two straight in their own building against the Clippers by a combined 31 points.
Now they face easily their toughest task of the season (their “best” victory of the year, a win in Milwaukee, looks a lot less impressive in light of the Bucks’ season-long sample size), going into Golden State to face a 9-1 Warriors team that is 4-0-1 in their last five against the spread. Worse yet, they’re facing the presumptive MVP at the wrong time.
Following four straight games when he couldn’t top the 20-point mark, Curry put up a 50 burger on the Hawks on Monday night. He did so on just 28 shots, getting to the line 13 times and dishing eight assists in the process.
Now he’ll likely be guarded by Patrick Beverly, who comes with a sterling defensive reputation but against whom Steph has had his way with in the past, averaging 25 points in 31 regular season and playoff games combined. The last time the two faced off on Curry’s home court, Steph put up 38 and 11 in a 10-point Warriors win over the Clippers in January.
More good news: two of the three times Curry put up a 50-spot last season, the Warriors followed it up with a win of at least 30 points, and two other times last season, Steph had 40 or more in consecutive games. When he gets going, he usually stays going, and the players around him get fired up to join in the fun.
Take advantage of a line that doesn’t show nearly enough respect to the NBA’s best team by net rating as they face off against the 23rd ranked squad in that department. Minnesota’s 26th ranked offense is no match for Golden State’s top-ranked defense. So support the home team with confidence.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Pick
- Warriors -7 (-110)
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
When: 7:30 p.m. ET
Knicks vs. Bucks Odds
This is a rematch of Friday night and a game that saw the Knicks do something never before seen in their history: win a game by double digits after falling behind by 20 or more points.
The second part of that is disconcerting for anyone looking to take New York here. The Knicks got down by so many points because they were unable to make timely recoveries on Milwaukee’s shooters after putting two on the ball whenever Giannis got anywhere close to the paint.
Grayson Allen wound up having a career night in the loss, and it took Derrick Rose having a throwback MVP sort of evening for the Knicks to eventually pull away.
Say this for the Knicks, though: they are never, ever out of a game. In every game this season, with the exception of one, they have either emerged with a victory or had a second-half lead (the one exception: a road loss to the Pacers in which they got within two points in the fourth quarter).
Their games continue to go one of two ways: lose a big early lead, usually against the lesser competition, or pull games out against the toughest opponents. The data bears this out: the Knicks are 5-1 against the spread in games they’re either an underdog or favored by two points or fewer, and 1-4 ATS in games they’re favored by more than seven.
This line falls in between but is close to the former group, with the Bucks getting three playing on the road on the second night of a back-to-back. On paper, it’s the right line, as Milwaukee sports a bottom-10 net rating since opening night, which also happens to be the last time they were close to full health. Brook Lopez has been out since then, and Khris Middleton continues to miss time due to health and safety protocols. Jrue Holiday is back from injury but has yet to look like his normal self, averaging just 12 points in 25 minutes a night.
Taking the Knicks is always an adventure, but they’re the pick here. Julius Randle seemed to rediscover some of last year’s magic in the fourth quarter against Philly, and the Knicks will not take this opponent lightly. It’ll surely have some touch-and-go moments but look for New York to get to 8-4 with a (barely) comfortable margin.
Knicks vs. Bucks Pick
- Knicks -3 (-105)