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Player props expert Josh Gayle is here with his top player prop pick for Tuesday night's NBA action.
ANALYSIS

Tuesday NBA Best Bet: Backing Jimmy Buckets

The NBA can be tough to predict how many minutes a player will receive on any given night due to blowouts. However, I believe I found a formula that can help fight off the blowout risk.

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Jimmy Butler 6+ 1Q Points + Jimmy Butler 15 PTS (-155)

Line Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing

So this might be a little bit juiced, but I'm okay with that with the discount we're getting on his points. You might look at his normal points prop and see it's at 21.5 and think, "why are we betting on him score over 25% of his PTS in the 1st quarter at such high juice? I like to follow trends and rotations. Jimmy has averaged 8 PPG in the 1st quarter and becomes more of a facilitator as the game progresses. 

In Butler's two games against Washington this year, he has 1st quarters of 8 and 10 points (we only need 6) and final scoring totals of 29 and 32 points. This is essentially a score 6 points in the first quarter bet. If we can get 6 in the first quarter from him, he should have zero issues ending with 15 or more. Jimmy has 15 or more points in 17/19 games. One of those misses was the game he only played 12 minutes against the Lakers but left due to injury. The other was an off night returning from injury where he only saw 25 minutes.

Jimmy will be in line for 30+ minutes and his incredible history against this team and in the first quarter make this a great bet, in my opinion. I know taking juice isn't for everybody, but you only pay for juice if you lose. If you don't have access to DraftKings, I think his regular points prop is the top pivot I would suggest, but I am slightly concerned about a blowout. Good luck to all those.

Article Author

ROI 36.7%
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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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