NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday: Return of Goga

NBA player prop pick and prediction for Wednesday's Hornets vs. Pacers game. Player prop specialist John Hyslop is back with his second player prop pick for tonight's NBA action.
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NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday: Return of Goga

One way to do well betting on sports is just being mentally stronger than everyone on the planet. You have to be willing to do something that everyone else says is dumb just because you believe in it. That's just gambling people. If I had to guess, I'd say some people probably think that this bet is as dumb as can be. But looks can be deceiving. Don't forget that. And at the end of the day, the only thing better than winning a plus money bet is winning a plus money bet that everyone thought would lose. That's called living right there and that's what I'm doing tonight.

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Goga Bitadze Over 13.5 Points (+110) (Bet $100 to Win $110)

*Odds Available at Barstool at Time of Publishing*

I'm at Barstool since they have the best price. DraftKings and BetMGM are both hanging 13.5 at +105 so they are both options as well. I wanted to hold out and go to FanDuel for 15 at more plus money but they still have not given out a line on this kid. That's just bad.

A lot of you people are still mad at Goga but I don't think it's entirely his fault for not covering the other night. How was he supposed to know his coach would sit him down for getting two fouls in the first four minutes of the game? If we're being honest, I liked the kid's intensity. He has a "not in my house" attitude that we can all respect.

Tonight, fouls shouldn't be a problem. First off, nobody fouls out against the Charlotte Hornets (no need to fact check that). Especially at home. This kid played 20 minutes against the Hornets already this season and only had two fouls. On the season only five teams are worse in the 'opponent personal fouls per possession' metric than Charlotte. We all know stats are for losers but when they work in your favor, they matter.

On top of not being a team that gets guys to foul out, the Hornets also have a problem not letting opposing centers score. They are dead last in the NBA allowing opposing centers to score 25.93 points per game. Listen to who they've seen in their last six games: Precious Achiuwa, Clint Capela, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Al Horford, Mitchell Robinson (shout-out Mitch), and Robin Lopez. They simply aren't ready for a guy like Goga after a run like that.

Now the biggest issue I had to sell myself on was the fact that Bitadze has only crossed this number a handful of times in his career (I checked). But, he hasn't really played much. He's behind the great Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. The good news is, every time he's played more than 24 minutes this season, he's gone over this number. I think he does it again tonight.

Pacers vs. Hornets Line Movement

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ROI 27%
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John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.

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