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The lines are sharp this Friday night but player props expert Josh Gayle has found two props at alternative lines that give a major edge coming from the Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves matchup.
ANALYSIS

Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves Player Prop Picks: A Same-Game Parlay on the Dishes

Suns vs. Timberwolves Line Movement

Chris Paul Under 13.5 Assists + Devin Booker 3+ Assists (-130) (Bet $130 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

I know what you’re thinking. Why are we fading the NBA’s best passer with an assist prop? Simply put, because this alternative line is just too high. 14+ assists is incredibly difficult and it’s a task that he has failed to achieve in 39/47 games. For those that don’t want to do the math, I will save you the headache, that’s nearly an 83% hit rate on the under. Not to mention, when these two teams faced off in November we saw CP3 ”only” rack up 8 dimes.

So why the other leg? Devin Booker to get 3+ assists works in our favor with the CP3 under. Any possession that Booker gets an assist will be a possession that Paul doesnt. Beyond that, we have seen Booker hit this number routinely. What I’m about to tell you is completely real no matter how fake it may sound. Devin Booker has 3 or more assists in 37/40 games. One of those games was when he got hurt against Golden State and only played 15 minutes. In games where Devin Booker plays all four quarters, he is then 37/39 with a near 95% hit rate. Last time against Minnesota he racked up a cool 5 assists.

I think both of their regular props are fairly marked at 11.5 assists for CP3 and 4.5 assists for Devin Booker but when you work with these alternative lines we get two legs with incredible hit rates. This game has the second-largest spread on the day with 8.5 so I would love if Booker can get us those 3 Assists quick and we see a blowout commence and some resting of Suns starters in the fourth quarter. It’s well noted that Devin Booker is also very good friends with KAT and D-Lo and they’ve spoken multiple times about how they look to have good games against one another especially. With that being known I see Booker with the ball in his hands a little more this game and looking to score and be a playmaker.

Click Here for Suns vs Timberwolves Odds

Article Author

NFLNBAMLB

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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