NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday: Dort Throw

NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday: Dort Throw

There is a certain way to bet the NBA on a night like tonight. We've got eight games which is good news, but the bad news is, none of them start later than 8:00 pm ET. Obviously, we want to bet one of the 7:00 pm games, which we already did with the Domantas Sabonis move, so now we need something for the 8:00 pm game. I'm always looking for teams that play no defense to go against and wouldn't you know, the Portland Trail Blazers play tonight at 8:00 pm in Oklahoma City. It's like god and Adam Silver got together and said, "here John, here's a game you should bet." Just crazy luck here.

Click here for Thunder vs Trail Blazers odds

Luguentz Dort 20+ Points (+118) (Bet $100 to win $118)

Obviously, we're at FanDuel for this one. Dort's "normal" number is 18.5 so that's an option at the other spots. DraftKings has it for -110, FanDuel has -106 and BetMGM has -115. All of them are decent prices, but I'll go after the +116 at FanDuel for just another point.

Here's the thing about Dort, he's the man. This kid has won us a ton of coin in the past and I feel like I can spot a good "Dort move" at this point in his career. This is one of those moves. Partly because of him, but mainly because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out.

If you watch Thunder basketball, you know that SGA is quite the ball hog. The guy takes 20+ shots a night and it really hurts our guy, Dort. He'd never tell anyone because he's a standup guy but you know he wishes SGA would let him shoot more. We can just look at the numbers for proof.

Dort has played four games this season without SGA and he took at least 18 shots in two of them. That sounds like it's only half, and it is, but one of those games was the one where the Grizzlies beat the Thunder by 73. You can't even look at those numbers but if you did, you would see that our guy Dort had 15 points in only 25 minutes. He would have easily cleared 20 points if he played the whole time.

We don't have to worry about a blowout tonight (probably) because the Thunder play the Portland Trail Blazers. They stink at defense. On the season, no team in the NBA is worse in terms of defensive efficiency on the road. This game is in Oklahoma City.

Even if the Thunder lose, I doubt it's a blowout so Dort should get his full minutes. If and when that happens, it's not crazy to think he shoots the ball close to 20 times. That matters because he's shooting 44% at home as opposed to 35% on the road. This kid is set up to get into the 20's tonight.