Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat Prediction: Deflating The Ball Tonight

Charlotte Hornets vs. Miami Heat predictions and pick. It’s never fun taking an under. With that being said, handicapper Josh Gayle believes we have one here with some outstanding value.
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Charlotte Hornets vs Miami Heat Prediction: Deflating The Ball Tonight

No one likes taking an under. Rooting against points? The worst. But, every once in a while there is an under that you just can't ignore. For Thursday night's NBA slate, handicapper Josh Gayle has found an NBA under, specifically for LaMelo Ball, that is too good to pass up. Find out which bet he's taking by reading on.

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LaMelo Ball u35.5 PRA @-104 ($104 to win $100)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

LaMelo Ball has been playing well recently, but this matchup is just too difficult. LaMelo has faced off vs. Miami twice and has PRAs of 21 and 17. LaMelo simply struggles against this team and it shows. Miami has a trend of limiting point guards from racking up stats as they allow the 2nd fewest PTS, 1st fewest REBs and 6th fewest assists. Playing against Miami is a nightmare and this 35.5 line feels too high. LaMelo is averaging 34.6 PRA on the season, so they are grading this as a plus matchup for him when it’s clearly not.

It doesn’t play a major factor, but something else I found interesting is that LaMelo puts up worse stats at home than on the road. At home, LaMelo Ball only averages 33.8 PRA. But on the road, he averages 35.4. This game is at home which is an encouraging sign. This number is just so confusing to me. I know he’s been shooting more efficiently of late but he’s been on a streak of easier matchups. Now he gets arguably the hardest one. This number should be 33.5 or less in my eyes.

FanDuel is the only book I see with 35.5, so act fast with that. I would still play this at 34.5 for 1u after the line more than likely moves. This play is 99% my belief in Miami’s defense as opposed to my disbelief in LaMelo. The two games he struggled against them were so unlike him and we’ve seen other players get limited just as bad. Even Luka Doncic, two nights ago, only put up 21 points vs the Heat on very inefficient shooting. Trusting my gut here and putting out an early under in hopes no weird last-second injury news pops up that could screw us. The value is too good to miss.

ROI 4%

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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