Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets Best Bet: Can The Heat Start Hot on Thursday Night?

Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets best bet, prediction and pick. On smaller slates like this, sometimes you’ve gotta get weird. Josh Gayle thinks he's onto something here as we head into the night with another beauty.
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Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets Best Bet: Can The Heat Start Hot on Thursday Night?

We're just one day away from the All-Star break. That means we need to get in as many NBA bets as we can tonight before we take a long break from competitive games. So, in order to do just that, Josh Gayle has another play for us. This one coming to us from Hornets vs. Heat.

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Miami Heat -1.5 1st Quarter Spread @ -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Lets waste no time here and get to the good stuff. Miami has covered this spread in 6 out of their 7 games in February. They have scored 43 more 1Q points than their opponents this month. For those who don’t like to do math, I’ll save you the hassle. That’s an average of over a 6-point lead after the first quarter. One of those games was against this same Hornets team. Miami ended the 1st quarter up by 8 pts in that one. But why are they such a dominant first-quarter team?

In my opinion, it’s really helpful in winning the first quarter when your star player plays 10.6 minutes on average in the first. Jimmy Butler plays the 7th most 1st quarter minutes in the NBA and comes out of the game hot. Additionally, they’ll sometimes start with a small deficit but have such great depth off their bench to help them rally back and win the quarter. They can do this in a multitude of ways. That’s why I’m going with this bet instead of my typical first-to-15 shenanigans.

Another factor for me is Charlotte's struggles at opening games of late. I used Miami's monthly margin for their 1st-quarter lead total so I’ll do the same with Charlotte. Remember how Miami has outscored opponents by a total of 43 points this month? Well, Charlotte is down 34 points to opponents over the same span. A 77-point difference betwen these two teams merits a bet on a -1.5 line at -110. Now, obviously these are somewhat flawed because they had different opponents, but it’s still an encouraging sign for us in a bet where I just feel like we’re taking the better team and running with it. Like I said, we’ve gotta get weird today. It’s a small slate, what do you want from me? Let's roll!

ROI 4%

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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