Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction: Trust D’Angelo Russell From Deep

We are almost back to regular season basketball. This is the first play that stood out to me when the props dropped and we aren’t going to overthink this.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction: Trust D’Angelo Russell From Deep

D’Angelo Russell o2.5 3PM (-135) (Bet $135 to win $100)

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D’Lo is one of the players that always seems to do his job when we bet on him, would love for that to continue on Thursday night. Russell needs just three 3PM to get us home and it’s against a team he has a phenomenal history against. D’Lo has played Memphis twice this year and had made six, four, and six threes. The volume is there as he’s averaging 11 3PA over the three games played. If he shoots 11 threes I like the odds of making three of them.

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Russell is shooting 35% from deep on the season which would imply that all we need is for him to shoot nine long balls for him to likely hit three. If he’s 3/3 on making four or more I definitely see value in sprinkling 4+ on Fanduel at +180. I think getting o2.5 at minimal juice is an absolute steal. Russell has hit this in 28/45 games which is good for over a 62% hit rate, factor in the plus matchup and this best definitely has value.

Memphis in the last three games of the season have allowed Anfernee Simons to hit five, Lamelo Ball to hit five, and Terry Rozier to hit six. I wouldn’t say Memphis has improved on their perimeter defense and that’s where D'Angelo Russell does the bulk of his damage. I also like his o19.5 PTS if his 3PM line becomes too juiced but this is my first choice as we have seen D’Lo hit three threes without scoring 20+ nine times on the season.

I expect this to move to + money at 3.5 at some point so let's hop on this a day early while the getting is good.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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