Friday’s NBA Player Prop Picks From Beyond the Arc: Dorian Finney-Smith Paired With Rudy Gobert
Friday's NBA Player Prop Pick From Beyond the Arc: Dorian Finney-Smith
It's Friday and boy does it feel good to be back in the swing of things with the NBA. Yesterday, Lavine was looking good with two 3's going into the fourth quarter but unfortunately, it was the DeMar DeRozan show. With a great slate today, I'm excited to bounce back from it and get us a winner.
Dorian Finney-Smith o2.5 3PM -145 (Bet $145 to win $100)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of writing
First, we’ll talk about DFS, then get into what I’m gonna be pairing this play with. Finney-Smith is arguably having his best season so far and has just been rewarded with a four-year extension. Finney-Smith is shooting 37.2% from 3 on the season, but we really saw that improve over his last 10 games to 40.2%. With an injury to Tim Hardaway Jr, this team has been searching for dependable players to knock down open 3’s created by Luka Doncic. While Smith traditionally wasn't ever the best 3-point shooter, his shot has improved every year and he's playing some of his best basketball.
Additionally, despite a small sample size, he has played well with rest this year. He's averaging 1.9 made on 5.1 attempts on the season, but in his four games with 3+ days rest, he's averaging 2.3 on 5.3. This obviously isn't predictive of anything, but it was a nice little find that re-assured me at the end. He finished the first half of the season hitting this in seven of his last nine games, I expect him to get plenty of good opportunities against the Jazz, with a spread currently sitting at 5.
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- Dorian Finney-Smith 2+ 3PM/Rudy Gobert 10 REB (+120) .75u
- Dorian Finney-Smith 1+ 3PM/Rudy Gobert 12 REB (-105) .5u
I think while you could play this with -145 juice, these are very sneaky ways to play it. Rudy Gobert is someone who finished the first half of the season mostly injured and people seemingly forgot what he was doing beforehand. Gobert is currently first in the NBA in rebounds, averaging 14.8 on the season. To have Gobert get 10 rebounds and have Finney-Smith hit two 3's really just feels like another day at the office to me.
Where I might have gotten a little creative is the second part, playing only one Finney-Smith three with 12 Gobert rebounds. While writing up Gobert's 10+ rebounds for this parlay, I kind of realized I also liked the straight and this was a nice way to bring the juice down. In the 7 games before the All-Star break, the Mavs were one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA without Porzingis in town. They allowed 18 to Jonas Val, 12 to Bam, 15 to Isaiah Stewart, and 13 to Joel Embiid, all comparable guys in the rebounding department.
Stuart Durst, also known as @MonotoneFootbal on Twitter, is a writer and sports bettor specializing in the NFL, NBA and CFB. When he’s not writing for OddsChecker, he enjoys playing basketball and talking player props with his community.