Washington Wizards vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction: Getting Two Chances
Washington Wizards vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction: Getting Two Chances
Kyle Kuzma No Double Double (-105) Bet $105 to win $100
Odds available at MGM at time of writing
My initial bet was Kyle Kuzma u9.5 rebounds because I feel like that was a rebound too high. Upon writing a little I thought to myself, what’s the double-double line and it was merely the same. Kyle Kuzma shouldn’t be getting 10 or more assists so let's not even acknowledge that. Kuzma is a great scorer but has actually scored single-digit points twice in his last seven games so if it gives our under on his rebounds some added insurance. Kuzma is averaging 8.8 rebounds on the season and last time out vs San Antonio only brought down 5.
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San Antonio ranks league average against PF’s rebounding the ball so I’m unsure why his rebounding props appear to be inflated. My first guess was that maybe he’s really been rebounding well lately and the books had to adjust. That’s not the case as Kuzma has only had double-digit rebounds twice in his last eight games. This number is just so odd to me and getting -105 for no double-double feels like a no-brainer with two potential outs.
Kuzma has 22 double-doubles in 55 games so only 40% of the time. Any bet you can get with a 60% hit rate at -105 mathematically had an edge. Factor that in with his 13 points and 5 rebounds vs them last time and you find yourself with a no-brainer bet. This game should remain close so blowout shouldn’t help us like most of our unders but this is just a rebound too high for me and if he ends with single-digit points and double-digit rebounds I will be glad that we went this route instead for nearly the same odds.