Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors Prediction: Clint Capela Won't Be Needed
Atlanta Hawks vs. Toronto Raptors Prediction: Clint Capela Won't Be Needed
Another Saturday NBA pick for handicapper Josh Gayle, this time coming our way from the Hawks vs. Raptors game. Josh is betting on the Hawks not needing their big man to win this one, so he's fading a big night from Capela.
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1.5u - Clint Capela No Double Double @ -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)
This is my favorite bet of the day. You know I’m not a huge unders guy but this one has so much value and we don’t even need drink any juice. Capela has hit this prop in 14 of his last 16 games. Although he averages a double-double on the season he will normally hit double digit in one category and not the other. Against Toronto, this has been the case as well. He games with 8 PTS/ 9 REB and 6 PTS/ 8 REB. In two games vs Toronto this year he is average just 7 PTS and 8.5 REB, so why is that?
I’ve noticed a trend with the big man. His minutes are very matchup based. When he plays a true big he is much more needed by Atlanta on the defensive end. Guys like Jarrett Allen, Nikola Vucevic, Joel Embiid all force Atlanta to play Capela in minutes of the high 20’s or low 30s. Against teams without a true center much like Toronto, we see Capela play low 20s or high teens in minutes. In Capela's two games vs Toronto, he is averaging just 21 minutes. Pascal Siakam is questionable for tonight but whether he or Boucher are the starter I could definitely see Atlanta going small-ball with Danilo or Okongwu running the 5 spot.
Bet $1, Get $150 on Hawks-Raptors
I will have people that ask if I had to just take one under between points and rebounds which would I lean. I would go with under on points more than rebounds but I really like the no double-double much more than either bet individually. I mean he simply only gets double-doubles when the playing time is there, and I just don't see it. Although this game should remain close there is no guarantee that he is on the court in those clutch moments so it’s entirely possible that we don’t even have to sweat. Toronto allows the 6th fewest PTS to centers and Siakam or not I don’t see that really changing tonight. I love this bet at 1.5u all the way to -140.