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Sometimes the books just simply make mistakes. This would appear to be one of those moments, we will gladly take advantage of when they seem to set bad lines.
ANALYSIS

Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns Prediction: Rudy Gobert Staying Active

Sometimes the books just simply make mistakes. This would appear to be one of those moments, we will gladly take advantage of when they seem to set bad lines.

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1u - Rudy Gobert o12.5 REB’s (-125) (Bet $125 to win $100)

Odds Available at Caesars

Rudy Gobert has been on a rebounding fiesta hitting this prop in 15 of his last 19 games. Gobert is averaging a cool 14.8 rebounds per game so getting a 12.5 number seems disrespectful. Gobert has hit this in 10 of his last 15 vs Phoenix and should continue his dominance over Ayton if he receives the minutes he could see. This game projects to be close as of the time of writing which should bode well for Rudy’s potential playing time and eventual rebounding output.

Get 150/1 Odds on the Jazz Winning

Phoenix ranks pretty much league average against centers rebounding outputs but they've been especially poor lately. In the last four games, we have seen Valanciunas bring down 17, Sengun bring down 14, and Zubac bring down 13 boards. Rudy Gobert is arguably the best rebounder in the league so we have no reason to believe he can’t do this if others have so routinely. Gobert averages nearly 15 a game for a reason so us only needing 13 feels like outstanding value.

For whatever reason we see Gobert averages 15.3 rebounds per game on the road as opposed to his home total of 14.5 rebounds per game. Rudy rebounds more successfully on the road and this game is an ideal spot to help that number persist. Ayton isn’t a threat to pull Gobert too far from the basket so the opportunities will surely be there. I’m only laying one unit on this because rebounding props lately have been very wishy washy in terms of what's considered a rebound and I refuse to make any rebounding plays higher than one unit. If that wasn’t the case, the numbers would suggest this should be a 1.5 or 2u play. I really don’t mind drinking a little juice here at 12.5 as I think it’s possible this number could settle at 13.5 for + plus money come tipoff.

Article Author

NFLNBAMLB

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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