Sacramento Kings vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Fox Will Feast

Some nights I sit up for hours looking at props for hours and other nights they just stick out as no-brainers. This is one of those I refuse to overthink, this is good value and I'm going to take this, simple as that.
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Sacramento Kings vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Fox Will Feast

De'Aaron Fox o5.5 AST (-130) Bet $130 to Win $100

Odds at Ceasars at time of publishing

De'Aaron Fox is a pretty inconsistent dimer but we have so many signs that point to this game being one of his better games at distributing. First off, the matchup is against the Oklahoma City Thunder, for those who don’t know they allow the most assists to point guards of all NBA teams. OKC in the past five games have allowed 11 dimes to Haliburton, 11 to Booker, 8 to Murray, 10 to Randle and 9 to Ayo. OKC just simply isn't a great defensive team, especially with Lu Dort remaining sidelined.

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Fox now doesn’t have to share PG duties with Haliburton which is a big plus for him. Sabonis is a very gifted passing big but Fox should see an increase as time goes on in the assist category. In the last game, Fox had 10 assists with 18 potential assists. If he sees another 18 potential assist game, I like the odds of converting one-third of those into actual assists for 6+ total. Fox is averaging 6.5 assists vs the Thunder in two meetings this season and that was with Haliburton.

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Both of these teams are less than average so hopefully neither outstinks the other and this game remains close. The spread is currently -4.5 which is a good sign that Fox should see the minutes needed to hit this for us. Either Sabonis or Fox are hitting them over at 5.5 and I’m banking on Fox given OKC’s struggle specifically against the PG position. Fox has averaged 8.5 assists per game vs the Thunder in his career and we just need a measly 6. We don’t need him to be mistaken for John Stockton tonight, just get three each half and you’re a hero. What a realistic goal it is to make a ton of people happy, it would be selfish of him not to oblige. I really like this value and could see this getting way juiced throughout the day so lets get ahead while we can.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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