Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks Prediction: It's Trae Day

This is another one of those bets you look at and you just wonder why the number is that low. NBA player prop expert Josh Gayle sees value and snatches it here.
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Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks Prediction: It's Trae Day

I understand why this number is low to an extent. Boston allows the 2nd fewest assists to the point guard position. With that being said, Trae Young has played Boston three times and had double-digit dimes in two out of the three games. I put more stock into his history versus the team rather than Bostons defense against point guards in general. When you face off against the 4th highest assist man sometimes there’s just not much you can do.

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Trae Young Over 8.5 AST (-122) ($122 to win $100)

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Young has hit this prop in 8 of his last 9 games which is really rare to find a prop nowadays that has had that recent success for such little juice. Trae is coming off of a game with 21 potential assists so I figure if he can see that volume again he should be able to convert 43% of them into assists. Boston just allowed Haliburton to have 9 assists a few days ago so I see no reason why Trae shouldn’t be able to. Blowout potential is certainly there but I think Boston may have come back down to reality after losing to Indiana.

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Trae Young seems to like scoring more in home games and passing more in road games. This game will be played in Boston and on the road he averages 9.6 assists per game. This is one of those bets that I see flaws in, but 8.5 is a number I will always play Trae Young at. I remember in the past I was so dedicated to plays needing to check every box. I would watch so many of my leans hit without me actually taking it because I cared too much about that. Nowadays if a number is too low we will take it. I would like to think doing that strategy has resulted in more wins than losses. Let's keep that going tonight!

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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