Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction: Jarrett Allen is a Rebound Machine

The Charlotte Hornets are taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. Josh Gayle is all over this player prop in this game.
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Charlotte Hornets vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction: Jarrett Allen is a Rebound Machine

I'm surprised this pick isn’t more popular but we’re on a play that this player nearly doubled what we need tonight last time vs the same opponent.

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1u - Jarrett Allen o11.5 REB’s (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)

Jarrett Allen vs the Hornets. Just say that to yourselves a few times and you know this guy is going to have a night. I like him to score a ton too but rebounds just feels safer. Last time out vs Charlotte he came down with a season-high 22 rebounds.

That just isn’t what normal human beings are capable of. Before that Allen had a game of 14 REB’s vs Charlotte which knocks the 12 we need out of the water. He did have a dud game only bringing down four rebounds against them but that was the second game of the season and we always see weird stuff to open the year before players get back into playing shape and their normal rhythm. On the season Allen is averaging 14 REB’s vs Charlotte and is averaging 18 over his two games vs them, we only need 12.

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The Hornets are no stranger to allowing big rebound games. Below I will list some of their rebounding totals given up in every game in February:

  • 2/2: Horford 12 REB (4.5 more than average)
  • 2/4: Allen 22 REB (11 more than average)
  • 2/5: Adebayo 12 REB (1.8 more than average)
  • 2/7: Siakam 11 REB (2.6 more than average)
  • 2/9: Vucevic 16 REB (4.4 more than average)
  • 2/11: Stewart 11 REB (3.5 more than average)
  • 2/12: Adams 11 REB (1.1 more than average)
  • 2/15: Towns 15 REB (5.4 more than avearge)
  • 2/17: Adbayo 13 REB (2.8 more than average)
  • 2/25: Siakam 3 REB (5.6 less than average)
  • 2/27: Stewart 11 REB (3.5 more than average)
  • 2/28: Portis 10 REB (0.8 more than average)

So the Hornets played 12 games in February and allowed the opposing big to exceed his rebounding average in 11 of 12 games. Beyond that, in the month of February, we have seen centers increase their rebounding numbers by an average of 2.93 rebounds. With Jarret Allen averaging 11 rebounds a game, I like his chances of increasing that by one tonight when Charlotte is allowing an additional 3 boards to players season averages.

This game projects to remain close so I really like Allen's chances to stay on the court for the minutes needed to hit 12 for us. Charlotte allows the most rebounds in the league to C’s and they’ve been especially poor as of late. I really think this number should end around 12.5 come tipoff if people saw the value we see. It’s important to not just look at recent games as the only basis of if you should take a bet or not but to understand the context of matchups and how the game should play out. Allen hasn’t been routinely hitting 12 by any means but the trends from other players and himself vs Charlotte would indicate that tonight is the night to do so.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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