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I’ve seen bets a million times that make perfect sense lose. When that happens people are hesitant to take it again because they were burned before. It’s important to just trust the data and take the emotion out of it. This number is too low.

Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls Prediction: Can LaVine Stay Involved?

1u - Zach Lavine o22.5 PTS (-125) Bet $125 to win $100

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing.

LaVine last time out vs the Atlanta only scored 20 points and took just one field goal attempt in the 4th quarter. That just isn’t something I can see happening again. This matchup is just too good and previously to that game we saw it. LaVine scored 25 and 30 pts in the previous two matchups and was involved throughout the entirety of the game. Now that Derozans historic 30+ scoring streak is over perhaps he will be more willing to let LaVine lead with him as opposed to taking a backseat. Atlanta allows the 2nd most PPG to SG’s so this number is just disrespectful.

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The game projects to be close with a 1 point spread and a 233 point total. If that’s the case and we see Chicago score roughly 117 and LaVine sees 35+ I just don’t know how he doesn’t score 23. Of all the players I’ve seen all year Zach LaVine by far has the craziest home and away splits. On the road, LaVine scores 3.8 more points per game on the road. These teams have faced off three times and the only time he exceed 30+ was on the road. LaVine is averaging 26.5 points per game when he’s out of town. I think Lavine to score 30+ is totally in play but for only +280 I just don't see enough of an incentive to ladder it. I will gladly root for 23+.

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Lastly, this is a perfect buy-low spot. LaVine just scored 20 against Miami which is almost like scoring 25 against a normal defense. The books only adjust based on the number itself and now the context behind why that number happened. Whenever a player plays okay a tough defense it’s safe to guess that next game against a horrible defense they should be able to score 3 more points. Although Demars streak ended he is still someone who will receive superstar defensive attention and if that remains the case like I believe it should then LaVine should find himself in some advantageous positions to score for us. This bet has everything we need to make it a play but we will stick with one unit to play it completely safe. This will more than likely be my favorite play of the day.

Bet $1, Get $150 on Hawks vs Bulls

Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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