Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Best Bet: Analyzing Andrew Wiggins' Point Total

I did what no fun handicapper likes to do. I took an under in a great game. Although we will not be rooting for the most fun option I would like to think if the bets win that would make up for it.
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Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks Best Bet: Analyzing Andrew Wiggins' Point Total

I did what no fun handicapper likes to do. I took an under in a great game. Although we will not be rooting for the most fun option I would like to think if the bets win that would make up for it.

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1u - Andrew Wiggins u15.5 PTS (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)

Just to be clear, yes this is an under. Klay Thompson will be returning tonight for Golden State after being out with an illness. When Klay Thompson plays we have only seen Wiggins score 16 or more once in his last seven games. Without Klay, Wiggins averages 3.7 more points per game so it’s no coincidence. Tonight's matchup is a brutal one. The Dallas Mavericks allow the third-fewest points in the NBA and are a team unders always look like a good option with. Currently, the books are divided between setting this prop at 14.5 or 15.5 so we will definitely take the extra point here and ride a tad of juice.

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Wiggins has played Dallas three times and is over in two actually. Those two games were both without Klay though and he barely cleared this line. The one game he missed was with Klay starting much like tonight. This feels like it’s going to be a low-scoring grind-it-out game and if anyone will score big tonight it will be the guards on both teams. Wiggins is only averaging 11 points per game over his last five games and that was even without Klay. Factor in his shooting struggles with his usage going down and I see value here.

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Unfortunately, a blowout probably won't happen here to help us but we’ve seen crazier things, especially in this series. Wiggins slightly averages fewer points on the road which adds yet another factor as to why I see value here. I know it’s the last thing you want to do but taking an under is sometimes the best play. These are two great teams and I would love to sit here and root for players to have success but all signs point to this being a game full of unders and not overs and this one sticks out to me as my favorite one. I would only play this at 15.5 though as he seems to finish with just 15 quite frequently.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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