San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings Prediction: Jakob Poeltl Starting Hot

On tough slates like this you’ve gotta get creative to find edges and I believe we have done just that. Sometimes you gotta tap into markets you’re not used to having to tap into.
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San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings Prediction: Jakob Poeltl Starting Hot

1u - Jakob Poeltl 12+ PTS / 4+ 1Q PTS (-135) $135 to win $100

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing This one is pretty self-explanatory. The main prop for Poeltl is 15.5 but that’s too rich for me with the potential blowout risk this game provides. I decided to go for a safer route with 12 and paired it with a play that coincides with it. If Poeltl can get 4 points in the first quarter I really like his chances to get 8 the rest of the way. Poeltl has 4 or more first-quarter points in 10 of his last 16 games and 12+ points in 13 of his last 16 games. Both of these are great signs he should do be able to do it again and he has a great matchup. His last time out vs the Kings he only scored 4 points but that was against Richaun Holmes, whenever he has played Sabonis in the past we saw Myles Turner get the assignment. Sabonis as the primary defender has been barbecue chicken for opposing bigs and Holmes remains questionable.

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Sacramento allows the 7th most points to centers and that number should increase now that Sabonis is in town. Sabonis played 11 first-quarter minutes yesterday and if he sees a similar rotation then I would like to think Popovich would want to keep Poeltl’s size on him for the duration of the 1st. The longer he plays the more likely of a chance he hits our first leg. Poeltl's normal prop is 15.5 and for good reason but the game spread is near double digits and that scares me off. I think 12 points is very in play through three quarters so we could beat cash this one even with the game being one-sided which I like as a possibility.

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Jakob is also a home player. He averages 1.4 more points at home than on the road. In front of the home crowd, I like his odds to hit two early buckets and four the rest of the way. This bet is so simple that it just might work. I love the thought of getting a 25% discount on points and that's exactly what we’re getting if he does his job in the 1st quarter. The total for this game is an unreal 241 which is by far the largest on the slate. This information bodes very well for us. If San Antonio scores 125+ I like Poelt’s odds of being 10% of those points especially because he has played 27 or more minutes in eight straight games. This is a valuable bet and we’ll live with the results regardless of what happens knowing we had value.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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