Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets Prediction: Should You Fade Nikola Jokic?

NBA player props expert Josh Gayle is back with another player prop pick for Friday night's NBA action and it comes from the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets matchup. He has his eyes set on fading one of the league's best.
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Denver Nuggets vs. Houston Rockets Prediction: Should You Fade Nikola Jokic?

I am fading a player who has done so much good for us. Sometimes you have to trust your gut and the data, it’s nothing personal it’s strictly business.

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Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 AST (-135) ($135 to win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

Nikola Jokic to get a triple-double is +135 so the books don’t think he gets the job done. Jokic is a lock for 10 points and dang near a lock for 10 rebounds which leaves us with assists. Jokic has only reached double-digit assists four times in his last twelve games. When playing against Houston this season he has only had games of 3 and 2 assists. That is by far his worst vs any team this year and it has happened twice, so why is that?

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My guess is that Jokic prioritizes scoring in this matchup as Houston allows the 2nd most points to centers. This game also has an outstanding blowout opportunity so we can see Jokic rest the end of the game without much rest. Denver enter tonights game as -13.5 favorites and I could see that number climbing. Denver should play motivated after suffering an embarrassing 12 point loss to Oklahoma City and they won’t take another young and rebuilding team lightly. I think it’s likely that Jokic could have 7-9 assists through three quarters but rest the bulk of the fourth because the outcome is already pretty much determined.

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Jokic “ only” averages 7.9 assists per game on the season and has struggled mightily in the assist department vs Houston. 9.5 just doesn't seem like a proper price here. Houstons allows the 9th fewest assists to centers so it doesn’t appear that this prop is a plus matchup like the number would suggest. If it wasn’t our hero Nikola Jokic I would consider more than 1 unit but we cant pay multiple units on an under of a guy who has respected our cash so much this year, that’s just being mean. I feel outstanding about our odds here and truthfully think this number should move to 8.5 by tipoff.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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