Philadelphia 76ers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction: Who Else but Darius Garland?

NBA player props expert Josh Gayle is here with his top player prop pick for Friday night's NBA action and it comes from the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers matchup.
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction: Who Else but Darius Garland?

The second I saw this bet I knew I wanted to take it. Obviously, I did my due diligence but it checks every box needed for me to make it official.

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Darius Garland Over 19.5 PTS (-120) ($120 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

This bet is almost too good to be true. Garland has cleared 20+ points in 10 of his last 12 games including against Philly. He faces off against a Philly team now featuring James Harden but last game he scored 27 against them in the contest. The more assuring thing is that Garland took 23 field goal attempts. If Garland sees a similar workload there is no way that he should fail at scoring at least 20. Another great factor is that Garlands first game back in action was a monster 33 point performance when many were concerned about how he would look after his extended absence.

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Although Philly allows the 3rd fewest points to point guards I still see incredible value here. I don't even predict Garland to be all that efficient with Thybulle hounding him, someone has to take the shots. Caris Levert remains out and Jarrett Allen will be dealing with a problem in the paint with Joel Embiid. Garland might shoot 23 times again and only make 8 shots but could still score 20+ with some deep balls and free throws. Cleveland enters this game as 7 point dogs but even if this game gets out of hand we see Garland consistently see 30+ minutes. Garland has played 30 or more in 16 of his last 17 and in multiple of those games we have seen blowout scripts.

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This is one of those bets that you just have to take. Obviously, we usually take advantage of positional matchups but so many rosters look different and we can’t look at yearly rankings. Instead when a prop has a great hit rate lately it’s just smart to ride the hot hand. Sometimes us cappers become so infatuated with making plays that check every box that we are hesitant to take props on players with average matchups with incredibly low numbers to take advantage of. Garland doesn’t need 27 again this time, we only need 20. Garland looked great in his return and I see Embiid controlling that paint and guard play will need to keep Cleveland afloat in this game.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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