Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction: Rudy Gobert Is a Rebounding Machine

I feel like the books messed up on this one, this number shouldn’t be what it is and certainly not at plus odds. Whenever that’s the case we’ve gotta play it.
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Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction: Rudy Gobert Is a Rebounding Machine

1u - Rudy Gobert o12.5 REB (+100) (Bet $100 to Win $100)

*Odds available at Caesars at time of publishing*

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Rudy Gobert is simply a rebounding machine. The man is averaging 14.8 rebounds a game and is by far in the lead in the NBA in that category. He finds a matchup with Dallas who is around league average at allowing rebounds to bigs. Gobert has had games of 17 and 11 boards vs them with 17 being the most recent about a week and a half ago. “Only” needing 13 when you average nearly 15 is a task that definitely is obtainable in a matchup like this.

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My favorite reasoning for this prop is how close this game projects. As of now the spread only favors Dallas by -1.5 so we should see a close and competitive game where Gobert sees the court often. Rudy had hit this prop in 28/40 games. 7 of those 12 misses came when Gobert played less than 30 minutes. That shouldn’t be the case tonight if this game remains close as advertised. Dallas is not some super threatening rebounding team and I don't see a single big who will significantly pull Gobert away from the basket now that Porzingis is out of town.

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Although I’m getting this at plus odds, I understand that everyone reading this will not have that luxury but I would certainly play this up to -130 or -140. This is a bet I feel really good about especially with Gobert seemingly rebounding harder on the road. In road games, he averages 15.2 rebounds per game which is 0.7 more than his home total. Every sign points to him at least hitting 13 so I’m locking it in and not thinking twice. Rudy has been nice to us in the past so let's hope it remains that way.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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