Dallas Mavericks vs New York Knicks Best Bet: Fade Luka Doncic?
Dallas Mavericks vs New York Knicks Best Bet: Fade Luka Doncic?
I hate fading box office talent but sometimes the numbers get too big and there’s value on the under. Yes, we're fading Luke Doncic tonight for Knicks vs Mavericks.
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1u - Luka Doncic u32.5 PTS (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)
I won't ignore how great Luka has been playing. Luka is a walking 30 piece and can get you 50+ if he feels like it but tonight should be tough. Jalen Brunson was just announced probable and Dinwiddie is now in town and isn’t afraid to shoot. This doesn’t feel like a night that Luka needs to shoot 25+ times.
Additionally, he struggled vs the Knicks this year when they played. He shot 8-23 and only scored 21 points. New York isn’t the defensive team that they were last year but they are definitely middle of the pack and trending upward now that Kemba is out of the equation.
Brunson playing will definitely help this under as he’s a lock to shoot double-digit times. Dinwiddie since coming to town hasnt been shy as he has shot 11 or more times in his last 6. With both of them getting minutes and Knicks not being the most ideal matchup this number feels high. Luka is averaging 28 points per game on the season which is nothing to sneeze at but I don’t think 32.5 is a good number for tonight, that’s high for this matchup. This game only has a 216 total so Vegas has this one being low scoring and if that’s the case then I really like our odds.
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Fading big-time players like this is not something I like to do often but I’ll do it when it makes sense. This might not be a game we watch but will check the game logs here and there.
I would play this at 31.5 as well if the line moves for whatever reason. The Knicks have been the one team I can’t get a read on for the life of me this season, let's hope this is the play that breaks that curse.
No matter what happens I will live with the results knowing the numbers made sense to take the under. This game could be a blowout as well and perhaps Luka gets some late-game rest. This one could hit in a multitude of ways and that’s why it’s a must-play for me.