New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets Player Prop: An Incredible Value on Jonas Valanciunas

Player prop expert Gray Gutfreund has narrowed down his top NBA bet for Sunday's action. He has his eyes set on a pick with great value on Jonas Valanciunas.
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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Houston Rockets Player Prop: An Incredible Value on Jonas Valanciunas

The New Orleans Pelicans are hosting the Houston Rockets tonight. This may seem like an incredible spot for Pels center Jonas Valanciunas with Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum sidelined. However, sportsbooks seem to think that Valanciunas has turned into Prime Shaq all of a sudden, so I'm fading the big man tonight.

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Jonas Valanciunas Same-Game Parlay (Bet $120 to win $100)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at time of publishing*

Leg 1 Valanciunas: Under 25.5 Points

Leg 2 Valanciunas: Under 4.5 Assists

(Bet $120 to win $100)

Click Here for Pelicans vs Rockets Odds

I was looking at Jonas Valanciunas' Points + Assists prop and I absolutely loved the value on his under 25.5 there (I still really like this if the parlay is not available for you on your book). But, I was wondering if I could swing an even nicer value fading the big man today. And, thanks to the FanDuel alt-lines, we have been blessed with this gem. This is quite similar to the u25.5 P+A. Except, we are essentially getting a few extra points for added cushion.

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This parlay has cashed in 54 of 61 games for Valanciunas this season. That's good for an 88.5% hit rate on a -120 play. You don't need to be a mathematician to recognize the value there. JV is averaging only 17.7 PPG and 2.4 APG this season. The 6-foot-11 beast is having himself a nice year and is New Orleans' first option by default today, but he's not a guy that's going to go out and drop close to 30 points very often.

The former Grizzlies and Raptors center has played 11 games without Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum this season. And, even as the Pels' first look, his usage doesn't increase that much. The parlay only cashed in 2 of these 11 games, where JV averaged 18.9 PPG and 3.0 APG.

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On Friday, the Pelicans hosted the Charlotte Hornets. And, just like this evening's contest, McCollum and Ingram were sidelined. The Hornets are also among the league's very worst defenses when it comes to stopping opposing bigs. Valanciunas had just 10 points and 1 assist in a blowout loss. The matchup shouldn't be much of a concern today. Here are JV's three games against Houston this season:

  • Dec 5: 17 Points, 3 Assists
  • Feb 6: 18 Points, 3 Assists
  • Feb 8: 13 Points, 3 Assists

Additionally, let's take a look at last season. Valanciunas remained under these 25.5 and 4.5 lines in 53 of 62 games in the 2020-21 season. I don't think there's any matchup that would cause me to believe he'll drop more than 25 points in any given night.

Overall, I love this play and it's basically a gift from the books that this is even available. This is my favorite play on the Sunday slate, and remember to pivot to the under on Valanciunas' Points + Assists if you can't parlay these two lines together.

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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