Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Charlotte Hornets Prediction: Will Mason Plumlee Be Needed?

The matchup is a good one but player prop expert, Josh Gayle isn't so sure Mason Plumlee will get the minutes to make use of it. He gives his top NBA player prop pick for Monday night here.
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Charlotte Hornets Prediction: Will Mason Plumlee Be Needed?

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Mason Plumlee Under 11.5 REB/AST (-120) ($120 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

This play has positives and negatives to it but the positives massively outweigh the negatives. I’ll rip off the bandaid quick so we can just get into why I like this play. Oklahoma City allows the most rebounds to opposing centers, I know. Mason Plumlee plays the center position, also know that. So why am I crazy enough to take the under on what is statistically the best matchup there is to be had?

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For me, it’s all about the matchups. The Thunder are likely to start Isaiah Roby at C who is 6 foot 8 on his best day. When Charlotte plays against athletic bigs I’ve noticed that they will give Plumlee fewer minutes and run PJ Washington at the 5. When Plumlee is on the court I think he will rebound well but I don't personally have him over 20+ minutes. Blowout risk in addition to Charlotte needing a more athletic big to match OKC’s style of play.

Additionally, I’ve added assists. I think Plumdog is a great passer for a big but this gives us a bigger edge adding this if we project him for less than normal minutes. It also doesn’t hurt that OKC allows the 3rd fewest assists to centers. When these two teams faced off this year we saw Plumlee go for 6 rebounds and 2 assists in 17 minutes and I expect a similar stat line tonight, maybe a few more boards but enough for him to have 12+ reb/ast. Plumlee is under on this prop in 7 of his last 9 and this doesn’t seem like the ideal matchup for him to be a main factor.

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It’s not often that we will attack a good matchup with an under but this is one of those rare cases where I like the under if he’ll be riding the bench. If I’m wrong and Barrego gives Plumlee 25+ minutes I don’t love our odds but he seems like one of the more consistent coaches and I don’t see Mason seeing much court time. I also think this bet has great live betting opportunities, if he ends the first six minutes with 4 or 5 he could be in store for a lengthy break and you could potentially get this u13.5 or u14.5. I don’t expect him to play much of the 2nd or 4th, we’ve gotta hope he relaxes in the other 2 quarters. He should have an efficient night but not a long one, I like him to end with 10 or 11.

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ROI 4%

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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