Phoenix Suns vs. Chicago Bulls Prediction: No Payne No Gain

NBA player prop expert Josh Gayle is betting on a player he's never bet on. That means he loves this spot tonight. Josh has zeroed in on the Suns vs Bulls matchup tonight on NBA TV with his next NBA player prop bet for Friday.
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Phoenix Suns vs. Chicago Bulls Prediction: No Payne No Gain

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Cameron Payne Over 7.5 AST (-125) ($125 to win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

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Cam Payne is more than just a fun name to say, the dude is pretty good at basketball it turns out. The guy has a real knack for being a floor general and has demonstrated elite passing capabilities. Payne has 8 or more assists in 8/9 starts since CP3 has gone down. I will gladly take a 89% hit rate for when he starts. Chicago doesn’t have a defense that scares anybody and they will allow points. The Bulls allow the 8th most assists to point guards and Payne has been on an absolute tear, this line should most certainly be 8.5.

Payne is averaging 9.8 assists per game as the starter and is competing at the top with the likes of Harden, Young and Garland. Those three players are the only four that have averaged more assists per game since Payne has filled in as a starter. Payne is averaging 16.2 potential assists per game which is incredible so we just need half of them to be translated into actual assists. Teammates are converting them over 60% of his assist opportunities thus far so only needing 50% seems like a bargain if he can get similar usage. Chicago just doesn’t have the defense to stop an elite offense like Phoenix, even with Caruso back.

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Most of the time with taking Suns' overs I am concerned that they’ll blow out the other team by a million. I think the Bulls are good enough to keep this one close and Payne should see plenty of floor. This just seems like the books underrating Cam because he’s not a household name. If a big name player hit in 8 of 9 and had this matchup they would have adjusted the line by now. I will gladly bet the smaller name player and get a number that is too low for the usage he’s been seeing. Let's stay undefeated betting on this man.

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ROI 5%

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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