Sacramento Kings vs. Boston Celtics Prediction: Can Robert Williams Score Double Digits?

Today everyone will be focusing on their brackets and watching college basketball. Player prop expert Josh Gayle thinks this will play into our favor with better lines for NBA props. His first play of the day comes from the Kings vs. Celtics matchup.
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Sacramento Kings vs. Boston Celtics Prediction: Can Robert Williams Score Double Digits?

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Robert Williams Over 9.5 PTS (-135) ($135 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

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This line is confusing to me. Williams has hit this prop in 14 of his last 16 games and Sacramento doesn’t appear to be that tough of a matchup that should deter us away from betting this. Sacramento allows 7th most points to centers. In the last matchup against the Kings, we saw Williams put up 13 points. I truly don’t understand this line, the spread is nine points, so maybe it’s implied with blowout probability but Williams has hit this pretty routinely through blowouts as well.

When games aren’t blowouts we see Williams get 35ish minutes a game and this should hit with ease if Sacramento can just hang around. In William's last three games versus Sabonis he has hit this in 2 of his last 3 and in two of those games he played 23 and 22 minutes. Showing he can hit with such little playing time against his likely defender is a great sign. The one time Williams saw big minutes versus Domantas was when he put up 14 against him. We just need him to get five buckets, one a quarter, and some free throws somewhere in there.

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This is one of those bets that look too good to be true. Sometimes that’s a trap and other times it’s a gift. I just can't resist a prop with this hit rate and the defense he’s going against. If this line moves to 10.5 I would pivot to PRA. Williams ends with exactly 10 points so often I would make the switch. In William's last game versus the Kings, he had 17 rebounds and 4 assists. If this line moved to 10.5 pts then we will likely see his PRA at 22.5 which I like him to get. Williams to get 10 is a bet I would take every time against the Kings, we’ll live with whatever happens.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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