NBA Player Prop Picks for Tuesday: Will Nikola Jokic Dominate the Clippers?

Player prop expert Gray Gutfreund has narrowed down his top NBA bet for Tuesday's action. He has his eyes set on Nikola Jokic as he continues his push towards repeating as MVP.
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NBA Player Prop Picks for Tuesday: Will Nikola Jokic Dominate the Clippers?

With only ten games remaining in the regular season, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are fighting for playoff seeding. With just a 0.5-game difference in the standings between Denver and Minnesota, the Nuggets will surely do everything in their power to secure that 6th seed in the Western Conference and avoid the play-in tournament.

That starts tonight in a nationally televised matchup on TNT -- tip-off is at 10:00 PM ET. I'm expecting Nuggets Head Coach Michael Malone to play his starters plenty in an important game, which means this game is set up for Nikola Jokic to dominate.

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Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 Rebounds -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

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Nikola Jokic, at the forefront of the MVP conversation yet again, has been a beast on the glass this season. His 13.6 rebounds per game rank 2nd in the entire league and are setting a new career-high for the Joker.

Whenever Jokic sees sufficient playing time, you can bank on him pulling down plenty of boards. On this 12.5 over/under, the over has a 63.5% hit rate when he plays 30+ minutes (52 games) and a 65.2% hit rate when he sees 32+ minutes (46 games). All three games between the Nuggets and Clippers have been decided by three points or less this season, so I like the superstar's chances to see a full slate of minutes tonight.

Let's dive into this matchup with the Clippers. Los Angeles concedes the 3rd most rebounds to opponents and the 8th most to opposing centers. Furthermore, Jokic and the rest of the NBA's elite rebounders have enjoyed tremendous success against the Clippers all year. He has 14, 13, and 22 boards in three games against the Clips this season, and that's just scratching the surface of how lucrative this matchup is.

Here are the NBA's top 5 rebounders' totals vs. LAC this season:

  • Rudy Gobert: 16, 17
  • Nikola Jokic: 14, 13, 22
  • Jonas Valanciunas: 16, 15, 13
  • Domantas Sabonis: 11
  • Clint Capela: 11

14 of the last 20 centers to see at least 30 minutes of action against the Clippers surpassed their season rebounding average. With Jokic all but certain to see over 30 minutes of playing time this evening, this line is a terrific value at over a full rebound below his 2021-22 average.

Jokic has played 11 games against teams that rank in the bottom 5 in rebounds allowed this season. He's averaging a ridiculous 15.4 RPG across these games, finishing with at least 13 in 9 of them. In a cake matchup tonight, look for the MVP frontrunner to continue owning the glass against teams that don't rebound well.

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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