Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Will Nikola Jokic Start Hot?

Whenever I see a blowout script I try to find ways of betting the game where only one-quarter matters or one-half. Tonight we do that exact thing and we are on a goodie. Josh Gayle shares his pick for the Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder game.
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Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Will Nikola Jokic Start Hot?

1u - Nikola Jokic 6+ 1Q PTS / 2+ 1Q REB (-130) (Bet $130 to Win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

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Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

Only going 1 unit here to be safe but I like this bet more than most. Jokic has been on an absolutely great run as he continues to make his case for MVP. The man is also dominating the first quarters of games. Jokic is averaging 9.4 points per game and 4.0 rebounds per game in the first quarter in his last 11. He has a hit rate of 10/11 in that span so we are seeing supreme value. Thunder have been exceptionally bad at allowing rebounds so you could raise this to 3 pretty comfortably and get plus odds but we’ll play it extra safe to only really have to focus on points.

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Jokic getting 2 rebounds in the 1st quarter should be light work against an OKC team he has averaged 13.7 rebounds per game against this season in 3 games. The Thunder allow the most rebounds in the league to centers. So this bet comes down to points, can Nikola score 6 pts in the opening quarter? He has been scoring great in the 1st quarter and in the midst of an MVP race, I’d like to say to he comes out hot. This game has blowout written all over it and his regular points is at 23.5. They are assuming he gets 24 through 3 quarters and doesn’t play the 4th. That would put him at 8 points a quarter giving us an edge.

Get 20/1 Odds on a 3-Pointer being scored in Nuggets vs Thunder

We know we’re getting discounts on both legs here and the hit rate is incredible soon but let's get greedy for once. I really think his 8+ 1Q PTS / 4+ 1Q REB line of +370 holds incredible value for a guy averaging 9/4 in the 1st quarter in his past 11. I will definitely be sprinkling some money on that tonight unofficially. Denver will take care of business tonight like they always do for us but tonight we are solely focusing on the big man to start hot and give himself a second-half he gets to rest himself up. This is a rare play where even though I’m only playing for 1 unit I wouldn’t be mad if you played it for more, I think it’s that good.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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