Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction: Can Nikola Jokic Crash The Glass Tonight?

I saw a prop I liked last night and when I woke up the number got even better. This isn’t a normal thing that happens so it’s a sign I must bet it. Here's my top NBA player prop bet on Nikola Jokic for Monday.
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Charlotte Hornets vs. Denver Nuggets Prediction: Can Nikola Jokic Crash The Glass Tonight?

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1u - Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 REB (-145) (Bet $145 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

This is more juice than I’d typically like to play but I can’t ignore this prop. Jokic has been pretty lackluster for his standards on the glass lately averaging 10.4 rebounds per game over his last 5. We all know what he’s capable of though and I put more stock into his yearly average of 13.5. This just feels like it’s going to be a monster game from him in every category but especially rebounding. These two teams have only faced off once this year but in that game, we saw Jokic grab an astounding 22 rebounds and 15 of them were in the first half alone. This wasn’t by chance as Charlotte allows the second most rebounds to centers only trailing the Thunder.

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Charlotte has been extra prone to allowing opposing centers to rebond well as of late. Below I will list some opposing centers rebound stats vs Charlotte in the last 12 days.

  • 3/16: Capela 15 REB
  • 3/21: Valanciunas 18 REB
  • 3/23: Toppin 11 REB
  • 3/25: Gobert 19 REB
  • 3/27: Drummond 17 REB

As you can see, players are smashing their rebounding overs by quite a bit. Jokic is in a prime position to grab 13 in the first three quarters alone, let alone needing the fourth. This game has a very close spread, so we expect the joker to play big minutes in this meaningful game for playoff seeding.

The history versus opponent is there, the opponent being recently bad at what we’re attacking is there and it being lower than his season average is there. I am supremely confident in this bet and if it had less juice I would play for more than just 1 unit. Rebounding props can be frustrating for sure but Jokic is one of the safer bets in the NBA.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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