Minnesota Timberwolves vs Toronto Raptors Prediction: A Number Set Too Low

When the books overreact to tough matchups with a disrespectful number sometimes you just have to take the small number despite the circumstances. Our player doesn’t have to have a career night by any means.
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Toronto Raptors Prediction: A Number Set Too Low

When the books overreact to tough matchups with a disrespectful number sometimes you just have to take the small number despite the circumstances. Our player doesn’t have to have a career night by any means.

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1u - Karl Anthony Towns o2.5 AST (-140) (Bet $140 to win $100)

This number is too low. Upon first scrolling through props on the night I just kept staring at this in disbelief. Now I understand that Toronto doesn’t allow many assists to the center position, they don’t always play Karl Anthony Towns, however. KAT is averaging 3.7 assists per game on the year and already has a three assist game against Toronto. In that game KAT had three assists we saw Minnesota only score 91 points, tonight they are projected between 114 and 115. With an extra 24 points I think KAT can at least duplicate those measly three assists again.

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KAT has 3+ assists in 48 of 69 games so nearly 70%. A hit rate this late in the year at the large of a sample size is unheard of. This game should remain close so I expect KAT to see large minutes in this one as Toronto are only 1 point favorites. Minnesota is two games out of not having to play in the play in so they’re hoping for some Denver losses and they can clinch playoffs without any play-in games. At this point in the season we will only be betting overs on players with incentives to play well.

If throughout the day this becomes extra extra juiced or moves to 3.5 I would still play the 2.5 but pair it with an alternative under in the game maybe in the high 230’s or low 240’s. I don’t see much scoring here but only needing three KAT assists is too crazy. KAT averages 7.1 assist attempts per game and converts 3.7 of them. In theory we would only need to see 6+ assist attempts as we see he converts over half of the attempts into the real thing. In a playoff race, you want the player in your best players hands, I’m liking him to get three even with the juice.

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Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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