Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction: Can Nikola Jokic Maintain His MVP Run?
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction: Can Nikola Jokic Maintain His MVP Run?
1u - Nikola Jokic o21.5 REB/AST (-120) (Bet $120 to Win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
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Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
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This bet will come down to the fourth quarter and I’m okay with that. Jokic has all of the incentives in the world not only for himself but for his team to show out in this one. The MVP frontrunner is averaging 21.6 REB/AST so he’s right on par with this number. If Denver wins this game then they are guaranteed to not have to play in the play-in tournament. Jokic averages just over 33 minutes a game on the season but for a game with tonight's magnitude, I could see him getting 36+.
Nikola Jokic has played Minnesota three times and in those contests, he has 24, 26, and 21 reb/ast games. So he has a 2/3 hit rate but his one miss falls on the hook at 21. In the game, he only had 21 we saw him “only” grab 10 rebounds because Denver lost by 17. I don’t see that being the case tonight as Denver seems like a more polished team now than then. Nikola’s REB prop is 13.5 and his AST is 8.5 and if you take the over on both you would need 23 REB/AST so only asking for 22 is technically a discount. I love betting overs on guys with incentives and Jokic has every reason in the world to stuff the stat sheet tonight.
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This game has a ridiculous 242 point total which is a great sign for Jokic’s assists. If Denver scores 122 points like they’re implied then I can’t imagine him not being a big reason for that. He will occasionally go for the high-scoring 40+ point games but he loves his triple-doubles. I see value on his triple-double today at +200 as well and think it’s worth a sprinkle. When it comes to his rebounds you would think that Karl Anthony Towns would pull him away from the basket but Jokic has double0digit rebounds vs him in 8 of his last 9 games. Pascal Siakam only averages 13.5 reb/ast and had 23 in the Timberwolves' last game. This bet has a close spread, good history, MVP narrative, and a high total, I’m in.
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