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Some bets you look and it just makes sense. You see them and you just immediately know the bet is a must-play. This is one of those moments.
ANALYSIS

Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic Prediction: Getting a Fred VanVleet Discount

1u - Fred VanVleet 4+ 1Q PTS / 2+ 3PM (-125) (Bet $125 to Win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

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Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic Prediction

Click Here for Raptors vs Magic Odds

Fred VanVleet averages 10.5 minutes in the first quarter. In the first quarter, he averages 5.7 points in the quarter and we only need 4 tonight. Orlando allows the third most 3PM to the position where VanVleet does a ton of his damage. Fred is due a big game after looking lackluster as of late and I think he’s too talented to maintain this colder than average stretch for him. Orlando is the team tanking the hardest in the NBA and seems like the perfect team to target for a prop like this. There is no guarantee that Freddy will get much fourth-quarter run as I anticipate a blowout but this should cash in the first three quarters.

Get 20/1 Odds on a 3-Pointer being scored in Raptors vs Magic

VanVleet has made two or more threes in 58/62 games on the season. A leg with a 93.5% hit rate against a defense allowing the third most three points made to PGs seems safe. Fred VanVleet’s points line is set low at 16.5 and is a popular play of the day but the blowout concerns scare me. If FVV is expected between 16-17 points and rests the fourth quarter that would project him at 5-6 points a quarter giving us value on our bet here. Fred VanVleet made three three-pointers in his lone meeting vs Orlando on 10 attempts.

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There’s a reason these first-quarter bets aren’t available every night and it’s because they have an edge. In heavy blowout scripts these are much safer than going with original props unless you’re an unders guy. Under are cool here and there but it’s not a life I can happily live on a day-to-day basis. This bet just feels right. It being a popular players scares me a tad but us pivoting off of his main props to something unconventional gives me good belief we can hit this. If I had to pick between his points and 3PM for his regular props I would lean his 3PM but I love this SGP more than all.

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Article Author

NFLNBAMLB

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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