Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls Prediction: Will Bam Adebayo Have A Quick Start?
Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls Prediction: Will Bam Adebayo Have A Quick Start?
1u - Bam Adebayo 4+ 1Q PTS & 2+ 1Q REB @ -135 (Bet $135 to win $100)
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Only needing 4 and 2 from Bam seems too good to be true. Bam is averaging 19.0 points per game and 10.3 rebounds per game, so we’re getting discounts in both categories. In the 1st quarter, Bam has been averaging 6 and 3 over his last 10 games and has hit this prop in 9-of-10. He hasn’t had the best history vs. Nikola Vucevic, but he’s due for a positive game against him because I don’t see envision Vucevic shutting him down three straight times. This is a rare bet where we care less about the matchup hit rate and more about trusting what we think is “due”.
Bam has only been playing 8.4 minutes in the first, but that's 2 points and 1 rebound every 4.2 minutes. It’s not that difficult the more you think about it. Chicago has allowed the last 3 centers they have played to do this in the first period. The likes of Zubac, Porzingis and Mitchell Robinson all did it, and I would say are all less likely candidates than Bam is tonight. Both teams have something to play for here, so I’m expecting a highly intense game for its entirety but I love avoiding any risk of a blowout when given the chance.
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The two rebounds should be the harder leg than the four points and Bam has 27 rebounds over his last two games. It’s been nice to see him feasting on the boards as of late and we just need a couple to open this game up. Usually, at the end of these writeups, I would have a pivot of what I would do if this isn’t available but for this one, I don't see one that makes sense. Go get this in as fast as you can and if the odds move or numbers change then we just gotta chalk it. These 1st quarter bets have been so nice to us and I plan on adding to the run tonight. Who’s with me?