Portland Trailblazers vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction: It Is Greg Brown Season?
Portland Trailblazers vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction: It Is Greg Brown Season?
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1u - Greg Brown III o17.5 PRA @ -120 ($120 to win $100)
Odds available at Caesars at time of publishing
Greg Brown is so young. The guy is only 20 years old and is still finding his footing in the league. Portland has nothing to play for and at this point in the season, they know that losses might do them more good than wins. They know it’s important to give their young guys some run late in the season to try to make them more comfortable for future situations.
Greg Brown seems blowout proof. Whether this game stays close (it shouldn’t) or it’s a blowout (it will be) I believe he will get late 4th quarter minutes regardless of starting the game.
Greg Brown has played San Antonio twice this year and has two games of 23 PRA. This number feels low for how bad San Antonio is at defending big men. Greg Brown has seen small-ball minutes at the 5 when Eubanks isn’t on the floor as well, where San Antonio really struggles. Greg Brown has free reign to plenty of minutes and I expect 25-30. Assuming he only gets 26 minutes or so, we would only need about 9 PRA a half with 13 minutes in each half, nothing crazy.
This is one of those bets where the hit rate will be horrible because he’s not used to playing such big minutes but the fact that he’s 2/2 vs San Antonio and his minutes are increasing lead me to believe this bet has value. Blazers need to give guys like him a chance to prove themselves when there is nothing to lose. San Antonio will need this game to win to stay in the hunt for a play-in spot which could lead to Greg Brown closing this game against some other bench guys for San Antonio where he’s used to feasting. Even if they’re down 20 points I don’t see a reason to sit a 20 year old late in the game who’s developing.