NBA Player Prop Picks for Sunday: Doubting Dwight Powell
NBA Player Prop Picks for Sunday: Doubting Dwight Powell
The Dallas Mavericks are hosting the San Antonio Spurs on the final night of regular-season basketball. Dallas is hoping to jump up to the 3rd-seed in the Western Conference playoff picture, while San Antonio is locked into the 10th-seed and the play-in game. Dwight Powell has had the most productive season of his career and has dazzled as Luka Doncic's primary pick-and-roll partner.
However, Powell does not crash the glass like a typical starting center. Between Doncic's rebounding prowess and Powell's lack of extended playing time, this is a great spot to fade the big man's rebounding total.
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Dwight Powell Under 7.5 Rebounds (-128) (Bet $128 to win $100)
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Dwight Powell has only posted an average of 4.9 rebounds per game this season. He's grabbed 8-plus rebounds in just 70 of his 81 games, good for an 86.4% hit rate on the under in the 2021-22 campaign.
Powell has crashed the glass a bit more recently, yet still hasn't rebounded enough to warrant an over/under of 7.5 rebounds tonight. Since the All-Star break, Powell has averaged 6.2 RPG, grabbing 7 or fewer rebounds in 17 of 22 games.
Maxi Kleber has been ruled out for tonight's action, which may feel like a cause for concern. Powell has played 25.1 minutes per game with Kleber sidelined this season, an increase from the 20.7 MPG he sees with Kleber in the lineup. But, the Mavs' starting center remained under the 7.5-rebound mark in 16 of his 22 games without Kleber, averaging 6.5 RPG.
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Powell averages just 6.3 rebounds per 28 minutes this season, a number certainly on the higher end of his expected playing-time range. He's posted just 6.7 boards per 28 minutes over the last five seasons, and this doesn't fully account for Luka's rebounding presence. This number drops to 6.4 per 28 when Powell shares the court with Dallas' Slovenian superstar.
The Spurs matchup also seems worrisome on paper, but a deeper dive indicates that it shouldn't present any issues here. Powell has remained way under this line in each of his three games vs. San Antonio this season. He averages just 4.3 RPG across three meetings, failing to top the 6-rebound mark in any of these contests. Powell's even faced the Spurs twice without Kleber already this season, where he totaled just 4 and 6 rebounds.
Powell has played at least 24 minutes in 27 games this season. This under has hit in 19 of these 27 games. So, even if he sees more minutes than he's accustomed to, I love our chances in this spot.