Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans Prediction: Can Jonas Valanciunas Crash The Glass?

NBA games matter again, we’re not watching G-League players hoop for 40 minutes anymore. I think I found the perfect player prop to hop on in tonight's Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans play-in game.
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Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans Prediction: Can Jonas Valanciunas Crash The Glass?

JoVal is one of my favorite players in the league. He’s not flashy, he’s never going to be a franchise cornerstone but that dude plays his role to a tee. This number is taking into account the extra minutes he will play due to the game’s circumstances but it should still be higher. Although he “only” averaged 11.4 RPG on the season he will likely see an extra 6-7 minutes than his usual run. In the regular season, he averaged 30.3 minutes per game but in the opening play-in game he played 36 minutes.

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Jonas Valanciunas Over 12.5 REB (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds Available at Fanduel at Time of Publishing*

The Clippers have been such a good opponent to target opposing centers rebound props. Valanciunas has games of 16 and 15 rebounds against the Clippers on the year. He also has a game with just 9 but for good reason. The game with just nine boards came in only 22 minutes near the end of the season when their playoff seeding was already determined. If Valanciunas got to play the 35+ minutes he will get tonight, it is safe to project him between 14 and 15 on that game too. Only needing 13 here actually feels like value. He would be 3-3 on this prop if New Orleans had anything to play for in their last matchup.

The Clippers have ended the season allowing the 8th most rebounds to big men and I don’t see that trend changing now. This game should remain close as the four-point spread indicates and Zubac will have Valanciunas nice and close to the basket for some of those easy contest free rebounds. I know the pace of the playoffs usually slows down and there are less possessions but if you factor in the extra minutes I think it should offset and he’s already proven he can smash this number in much less time he will see tonight. I know baseball has been the new main squeeze but this looked too tempting not to take.

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Clippers vs. Pelicans Spread Movement

ROI 4%
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insightpicks

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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