Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Same Game Parlay: Fade Andrew Wiggins in Game 3
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors Same Game Parlay: Fade Andrew Wiggins in Game 3
The Golden State Warriors have taken a commanding 2-0 series lead over the Denver Nuggets in Round 1. The Warriors' offense looks as good as it ever has, and the league has taken notice.
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The Warriors might be the NBA's most explosive offense, trotting out Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and rising star Jordan Poole every night. However, with so much scoring, there has to be an odd man out, right? Well, the odd man out seems to be Andrew Wiggins, who has taken a backseat offensively in the postseason thus far. There seems to be some incredible value on fading Andrew Wiggins tonight, and we're going to do just that.
Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors 2-Leg Same-Game Parlay (-138) (Bet $138 to win $100)
*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*
Leg 1: Andrew Wiggins Under 19.5 Points
There's a ton of value to be had tonight in betting Wiggins' alternative line at 19.5, up from his standard 15.5 over/under. And, it all starts with the fact that Wiggs has to share his minutes with the best shooters on planet earth.
The first-time All-Star averaged 17.2 points per game this season. But, Golden State's offensive stars were absent for large portions of the regular season. Now that Curry, Thompson, and Poole are all healthy together, Wiggins' production is noticeably taking a hit.
The former 1st-overall draft selection is scoring just 15.0 PPG when sharing the court with Golden State's trio of guards. In his 23 games with Curry, Thompson, and Poole, Wiggins scored fewer than 20 points in 20/23 games. He only posted 16 and 13 points in the first two games of the series on just 11 and 9 field goal attempts, respectively.
Wiggs has a Usage Rate of just 20.6% as Golden State's fourth option, compared to a 24.1 USG% when one of Steph or Klay has been sitting this season. Here's how his Usage Rate compares to the Warriors' top scorers in this 23-game sample:
- Stephen Curry - 27.9% USG
- Klay Thompson - 28.5% USG
- Jordan Poole - 22.7% USG
The Warriors forward is averaging just 13.0 FGA and 2.0 FTA across these games, which likely won't be enough volume for him to crack the 20-point mark in a Nuggets matchup that has caused him to struggle this season.
Leg 2: Jeff Green Over 1.5 Rebounds
Jeff Green remains locked into Denver's starting lineup to form a three-man frontcourt of himself, Nikola Jokic, and Aaron Gordon. This should result in a minimum of 22-24 minutes of action for Green again tonight.
He played 23 minutes in both Game 1 and Game 2, tallying rebound totals of 4 and 2 in the pair of playoff games. He averaged 3.1 RPG in 24 minutes per game this season, so a couple of rebounds tonight shouldn't be too much to ask of the veteran forward.
Playing time was key for Green, who grabbed 2+ rebounds in 51/61 games when seeing at least 20 minutes this season, averaging 3.3 RPG in these games. Uncle Jeff has also seen success in this specific matchup this season, grabbing multiple rebounds in 5 of his 6 games against the Warriors.
The journeyman brings playoff experience, shooting, and size to the table and should remain a key cog in Denver's rotation for this evening's playoff home opener.
Note: if you're unable to get this Wiggins-Green pairing as a Same Game Parlay, I would recommend taking the under on Wiggins' points as an alternative (available at u15.5 everywhere).
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