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NBA handicapper Gray Gutfreund has narrowed down his top NBA bet for Sunday's action. He has his eyes set on the Phoenix Suns as they are set to battle the New Orleans Pelicans in Game 4 of their first-round series.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Prediction: Should We Bank on Chris Paul and the Suns in Game 4?

The Phoenix Suns are wrapping up their weekend trip to New Orleans with a 9:30 PM ET tip-off this evening. After a convincing Game 3 victory on Friday night, Phoenix aims to go up 3-1 on the Pelicans in the final game of the NBA's Sunday slate.

The driving force of the Suns' success, Chris Paul has been magnificent thus far, averaging 25.0 points and 12.7 assists per game in the series. The Point God played 40 minutes on Friday night, picking up the slack (and then some) in Devin Booker's absence. Deandre Ayton also dominated in Game 3, finishing with a monster performance of 28 points and 17 rebounds. At the end of the day, we know we can count on these two guys. Tonight's contest will come down to whether or not the Suns' role players can step up, and I like their chances to do so.

Suns vs. Pelicans Game 4 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

When: 9:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: TNT

Click Here for Pelicans vs Suns Game 4 Odds

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Game 4 Line Movement

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Phoenix Suns Game 4 Pick

Suns Moneyline (-124) (Bet $124 to win $100)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

Positive regression is coming for the Phoenix Suns tonight. They were one of the league's best three-point shooting teams this season, hitting 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc. This was the 7th best mark in the NBA, tied with the Golden State Warriors.

However, this part of Phoenix's offensive arsenal has taken a step back to begin the postseason. The Suns have shot just 30.3% from deep in the postseason, ranking 15th of the 16 teams in the postseason field. Let's take a look at the Suns' role players now (excluding Paul, Ayton, and Booker). Excluding the team's top three offensive players, they're shooting an atrocious 7-for-50 from three-point land in the playoffs. That's just 14% for those who did the math. There's some good news that can come from this, though.

We can be fairly certain that these shooting struggles won't continue at this level for the Suns. Their perimeter shooters consist primarily of Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, Cam Johnson, Landry Shamet, and Cameron Payne. This five-man group is shooting 14.6% from deep on 16 attempts per game in the playoffs. In the regular season, they collectively shot 37.3% from deep. This means that these five have essentially been throwing away around 10 points per game, and Phoenix has still posted a sky-high 120.1 offensive rating.

Meanwhile, the Pelicans have shot 43.5% from deep in the series' first three games. They shot just 33.2% from three in the regular season, good for the fourth-worst mark in the NBA. In all likelihood, this number will come crashing down while the Suns' shooting numbers drastically improve. Couple this with the fact that Phoenix was the NBA's best 4th-quarter team this season, and I love the Suns to take care of business on the road.

Phoenix has the best player on the series in Chris Paul, who New Orleans has been completely unable to defend in pick-and-roll coverage. On the other hand, some negative regression could be on the way for Brandon Ingram, who has 37 and 34 in his last two games. I'm backing the Suns in Game 4 with positive regression on their side across the board.

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Article Author


Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.


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