Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls Same Game Parlay: Fade Jrue Holiday's Playmaking in Game 5

The Milwaukee Bucks host the Chicago Bulls for Game 5 tonight in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. The Bucks have a 3-1 in the series. Gray Gutfreund breaks down the game and this -130 parlay.
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls Same Game Parlay: Fade Jrue Holiday's Playmaking in Game 5

The Milwaukee Bucks are hosting the Chicago Bulls tonight as the Bucks look to take care of business and send Chicago home for the offseason. The Bucks gained some doubters after Khris Middleton's injury in Game 2, but quickly silenced them after a pair of blowout wins in the series' two most recent games.

Milwaukee enters tonight's contest as 12-point favorites and will lean on Giannis Antetokounmpo as they aim to advance to Round 2. However, my favorite value on Milwaukee's side is on Jrue Holiday. Books seem to be over-valuing his assists this evening, so I'm jumping on an alternative line for him. Let's see how I'm parlaying two Bucks props tonight!

Bucks vs. Bulls Game 5 Start Time and Where to Watch

When: 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: TNT

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Bucks vs Bulls Line Movement

Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls Same-Game Parlay (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

Leg 1: Jrue Holiday Under 9.5 Assists

Jrue Holiday has been excellent for the Milwaukee Bucks since the team traded for him heading into last season. And, he's done a great job of stepping up in Khris Middleton's absence. However, the books may be over-valuing the impact of Middleton's absence on Holiday's playmaking load.

Holiday has averaged 7.9 assists per 36 minutes without Middleton this season. Of course, this number is nothing to ignore. But, it's not a humongous increase from his 7.3 assists per 36 when sharing the court with Middleton. Jrue's going to see heavy minutes tonight, but that shouldn't discourage us. He remained under the 9.5 mark in 25/31 games when seeing 35+ minutes this season.

Milwaukee's point guard remained under the 10-assist mark in 10 of 13 games without Middleton this season, averaging 7.3 APG. Three of these games came against the Bulls, and Holiday failed to dish out more than 7 assists in any of the three. Overall, Jrue has recorded 7 assists or less in 7 of 8 games vs. Chicago this season. He posted just 6.8 assists per 36 minutes across these games.

In the two games since Middleton's injury, Holiday is averaging only 12.9 potential assists per 36 minutes. Giannis has dominated possession for Milwaukee lately, and it seems unlikely that Holiday sees the 15-17 potential assists he'd likely need to record double-digit assists.

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Leg 2: Wesley Matthews 1+ Threes Made

Now, let's move on to Wesley Matthews. The 35-year-old swingman has solidified himself in Milwaukee's starting five and is now consistently seeing plenty of playing time every game. In the series, he's averaging 28.0 minutes, 2.0 3PM, and 4.3 3PA per game. If Wes gets up four or five three-point attempts tonight, I love his chances of converting at least one for us.

Matthews has seen at least 24 minutes in every game this series, which is perfect for his chances of knocking down a three. He's hit at least one in 16 of 17 games when seeing at least 24 minutes this season. Although he wasn't playing for the Bucks last season, Matthews was also able to hit a three in 15 of 18 games when seeing 24+ minutes in the 2021 campaign.

The spot-up shooter has been a primary beneficiary of Chicago's defense collapsing on The Greek Freak's drives, which has led to plenty of open looks. Expect to see more of the same tonight as Milwaukee attempts to wrap the series up at home.

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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