Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Player Prop Pick: Bank on Tobias Harris in Game 2

The Miami Heat host the Philadelphia 76ers tonight for game 2. Player Prop expert Gray Gutfreund breaks down why Tobias Harris is the player to look out for tonight.
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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Player Prop Pick: Bank on Tobias Harris in Game 2

In Joel Embiid's absence, the Philadelphia 76ers are in dire need of other players to step up in the scoring department. There are three logical choices to be Philly's top scorer tonight: James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris. We're obviously rolling with Tobi.

Harden has been abysmal lately. Meanwhile, Maxey remains a young, inexperienced playoff performer at just 21 years old. And, Maxey has to deal with a lot of Jimmy Butler against Miami, while Harris sees less defensive attention than the Philly backcourt. Look for the Sixers forward to continue to pick up the slack in Embiid's absence and stay aggressive for Game 2 in Miami this evening.

Heat vs. 76ers Game 2 Start Time and Where to Watch

When: 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: TNT

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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game 2 Player Prop Pick

Tobias Harris Over 19.5 Points (+100) (Bet $100 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

We've established that James Harden is not the biggest beneficiary of Joel Embiid's absence. His performance paled in comparison to that of both Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey in Game 1.

  • James Harden: 16 PTS, 5/13 FG
  • Tyrese Maxey: 19 PTS, 6/15 FG
  • Tobias Harris: 27 PTS, 11/18 FG

Tobi saw the most usage of anyone on the Sixers roster on Monday night and was consistently getting easy buckets all night on his way to a playoff season-high. Harris benefited plenty from the frequent switching of the Heat defense. Tyler Herro, considered by many to be the worst defender in Miami's rotation, switched over to defend Harris several times in Game 1, which led to high-percentage looks for Tobi nearly every time. Harden and Maxey absorbed more attention from Erik Spoelstra's defensive scheme, and Harris should continue to benefit from seeing weaker defenders in Game 2 tonight.

The 29-year-old forward has a history of stepping up without Joel Embiid, too. Harris has played in 19 games over the last two seasons where he logged 30+ minutes with Embiid on the sidelines. He dropped at least 20 points in 14 of these 19 games, averaging an outstanding 25.1 PPG across these games.

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Harris has logged at least 37 minutes in each of Philly's playoff games this season and should be locked into around 40 minutes of action as long as the game remains somewhat competitive. This bodes well for the former Clipper, who has 20+ points in 17 of 23 games when seeing 35+ minutes without Embiid over the last three years.

Here are Tobi's numbers per-36 minutes without Embiid over the last three seasons:

  • 2021-22: 21.7 PTS per 36 min
  • 2020-21: 25.6 PTS per 36 min
  • 2019-20: 21.5 PTS per 36 min

Overall, Harris has averaged 23.1 points per 36 minutes in 51 games without Embiid during this stretch. In three postseason games without Joel, he's finished with at least 27 points in each of them. Look for him to take advantage of Miami's switching defense on increased usage in game 2 this evening.

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.


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