Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Same Game Parlay: Fade Marcus Smart's Playmaking in Game 3

The Milwaukee Bucks host the Boston Celtics today for Game 3. The series is tied 1-1. NBA expert Gray Gutfreund breaks down this Marcus Smart and
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Same Game Parlay: Fade Marcus Smart's Playmaking in Game 3

The Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics are heading back to Wisconsin, where the Bucks will host Game 3 this afternoon. The series is tied up at 1-1 after the Celtics ran the Bucks out of the gym on Tuesday night. However, with Milwaukee entering today's contest as 2-point favorites, a repeat would be highly unlikely.

There's some fantastic value on a 2-leg parlay including Marcus Smart and Giannis Antetokounmpo for today. We're going to be fading Smart's playmaking and counting on Giannis to get the job done on the glass.

Bucks vs. Celtics Game 3 Start Time and Where to Watch

When: 3:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC

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Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics Same-Game Parlay (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

Leg 1: Marcus Smart Under 8.5 Assists

Marcus Smart was officially named the Defensive Player of the Year last week. He's fresh off of the best season of his 8-year career. However, his regular assist line at 6.5 feels a touch high. And if that's the case, then I love bumping that number up to an alternate total of 8.5 for this under.

Smart's become a better, smarter playmaker over the last couple of seasons. But, he's also learned how to ensure Jayson Tatum has the ball in his hands as much as possible, which obviously limits the potential assist numbers he can rack up. Despite a career-high in the playmaking department this season, the Oklahoma State product only posted 5.9 assists per game.

Most importantly, Smart has recorded 8 or fewer assists in 68 of 76 games this season. He's also remained under this total in 8 of 10 playoff games over the last two seasons, averaging 6.4 APG across these games.

And, Smart hasn't had a ton of success in this specific matchup lately when it comes to his assist totals. He's finished with 7 or fewer assists in 7 of 8 games against the Bucks since last season. Going back to 2020, this under has hit in 23 of 27 postseason games, averaging just 5.3 assists in 37.4 minutes per game.

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Leg 2: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 10.5 Rebounds

This leg is simple. Trust the best player in the world to dominate while seeing increased minutes in Game 3.

Bucks Head Coach Mike Budenholzer has famously played Giannis far less in the regular season than in the postseason in order to save his superstar for games like this one. Over the last two seasons, the reigning Finals MVP has played 37.3 MPG in the postseason, a sharp increase from his 32.9 MPG in the regular season.

Giannis is essentially locked into 36+ minutes today, which means he'll see an increase in rebound chances along with his playing time. He's seen 36+ minutes in 56 games dating back to last season. He's grabbed at least 11 rebounds in 47 of these 56 games, averaging 13.0 RPG in these games.

He's also reached this mark in 6 of his last 7 games when seeing 36+ minutes against the Celtics. This alt-line has cashed in 22 of his 28 playoff games over the last two seasons, holding an average of 12.8 RPG. Expect Giannis to take care of business at home in Game 3.

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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