Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Same-Game Parlay: Will Deandre Ayton Dominate Game 7?

The Phoenix Suns host the Dallas Mavericks tonight for Game 7. Will Deandre Ayton dominate Game 7? Gray Gutfreund breaks down this same-game parlay.
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Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Same-Game Parlay: Will Deandre Ayton Dominate Game 7?

The age-old saying: "The best two words in sports." Of course, this is referring to "Game Seven." And the basketball gods were kind enough to give us not one, but two today! After the Bucks-Celtics showdown in the early game, the Phoenix Suns will be hosting the Dallas Mavericks at the Footprint Center for the franchise's first Game 7 since 2006.

We'll be locking in on this matchup, as the winner will take on the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. Let's see if Deandre Ayton has what it takes to be dominant this evening. Here is my prediction and the odds for Game 7 between the Phoenix Suns and the Dallas Mavericks.

Suns vs. Mavericks Game 7 Start Time and Where to Watch

Date: May 15, 2022

When: 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: TNT

Click Here for Suns vs Mavericks Game 7 Odds

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Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks Same Game Parlay (-125) (Bet $125 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

Leg 1: Deandre Ayton Under 12.5 Rebounds

Deandre Ayton is a confusing player. He seemingly has an eight-minute stretch in the first half of every game where he looks like a modern-day Shaquille O'Neal. But, he'll then find a way to disappear for what feels like the rest of the game.

The Arizona product has not crashed the glass aggressively this postseason, averaging just 9.3 rebounds per game in 31.6 minutes of action. In Phoenix's current series against the Mavs, Ayton is yet to top the 11-rebound mark. After finishing with 11 boards in Game 6, the Sun center has recorded 11 or fewer rebounds in 11 of his 12 games this postseason.

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DA has remained under the 12.5 line in 55 of 70 games since the start of the 2021-22 campaign, good for a 78.6% hit rate. In the Dallas matchup specifically, Ayton is averaging 10.4 RPG across 8 games, hitting this under in 6 of these 8 games. The slow pace in this series is undoubtedly a contributing factor in his decreased rebounding numbers. The two squads are playing at a pace of just 92.5 possessions per 48 minutes, a significant dropoff from Phoenix's regular-season mark of 99.8.

After a dominant Game 1 performance, Suns HC Monty Williams has been decreasingly reliant on his big man to play a massive role in the series. Ayton's 28.3 minutes per game in this series are the lowest he's seen in any of his six career playoff series. And, it's not particularly close. His backups - JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo - have been effective when on the court. If these guys can continue to play well in spurts, Ayton doesn't need to play close to 40 minutes, which would be quite helpful for an under tonight.

Leg 2: Devin Booker 1+ Rebounds - 1st Quarter

Devin Booker will be heavily relied upon for the 1-seed Suns tonight and that will begin immediately. D-Book frequently plays the entire opening quarter for Phoenix, doing so in 5 of 6 games this series. And, in a do-or-die game with the season on the line, tonight should be no different.

Plenty of minutes bring plenty of rebounding opportunities for the 3-time all-star. He's now grabbed a rebound in 27 straight first quarters. In 77 games this season, he has a Q1 REB in 68 of them.

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Booker has cashed this leg in every single game he's played against the Mavs this season, too. He's even averaging 2.7 Q1 REB across these nine games. Look for him to extend his streak to 28 straight games with a rebound in the opening quarter.

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Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.

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