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Player prop expert Gray Gutfreund has narrowed down his top NBA bet for Wednesday's action. He has his eyes set on Luka Doncic as the Warriors and Mavericks battle in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Same-Game Parlay: Does Luka Doncic Shine Early in Game 1?

After a Luka Doncic Game 7 masterpiece in Phoenix on Sunday, the Dallas Mavericks will be in San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors this evening. Doncic puts the team on his back when the Mavs take the court, as the offense revolves entirely around him when he's on the floor. I expect Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals to be no different.

Expect Luka to come out strong in his first career conference finals appearance tonight. Let's dive into the play for tonight's action.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Game 1 Start Time and Where to Watch

Date: May 18, 2022

When: 9:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: TNT

Click Here for Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Odds

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Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 1 Line Movement

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 1 Same Game Parlay (-125) (Bet $125 to win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

Leg 1: Luka Doncic 2+ Rebounds - 1st Quarter

Leg 2: Luka Doncic 2+ Assists - 1st Quarter

Luka Doncic has enjoyed a ton of success hitting these lines this postseason and over the last couple of months. Luka's first-quarter numbers benefit immensely from Dallas' playoff rotation, where he plays the entire first quarter. Let's look at his early-game production from the Mavs' second-round victory over Phoenix.

  • Game 1: 4 REB, 2 AST
  • Game 2: 3 REB, 4 AST
  • Game 3: 7 REB, 5 AST
  • Game 4: 2 REB, 3 AST
  • Game 5: 4 REB, 2 AST
  • Game 6: 4 REB, 2 AST
  • Game 7: 8 REB, 3 AST

That's a 100% hit rate last series, averaging 4.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists. And, Luka played all 12 Q1 minutes in each of these seven games. Mavs Head Coach Jason Kidd should continue to turn to the Slovenian superstar for the entire opening quarter in the WCF after Dallas' early success last round. The Mavs held a scoring margin of +23 in 84 first-quarter minutes vs. Phoenix, and this can largely be attributed to Luka's strong starts.

Let's take a look at Doncic's last 25 games now. He's finished the opening period with 2+ rebounds and 2+ assists in 20 of his last 25 games, averaging 3.9 REB and 3.0 AST during this stretch. And, Doncic had 5 boards and 2 dimes in the first quarter in his last meeting with Golden State.

The 3-time All-Star has cashed this parlay in 42 of 55 games when seeing a full 12-minute Q1 workload over the last two seasons. He averaged 3.1 REB and 3.0 AST per 12 minutes this regular season, and he's posting 3.4 REB and 2.2 AST per 12 minutes this postseason.

There's clearly a ton of value on one of the league's best players to fill up the stat sheet in the first quarter tonight. I'm trusting Luka Doncic to start strong in Game 1.

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Article Author


Gray is a massive New York sports fan, and is an NBA & NFL oracle. He’s a passionate writer with a strong background in statistics, and loves putting out player props! You can follow him on Twitter @PropBetGuru.


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