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Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals is tonight. The Heat vs the Celtics. Can Jimmy Butler carry the Heat to another NBA Finals? Ben Rajavuori answers.
ANALYSIS

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 7 Best Bet: Can Jimmy Butler Carry the Heat to Another NBA Finals?

After a hard-fought series filled with blowouts and injuries, we will need a seventh game to decide who will face the Warriors in the NBA Finals. Both teams have dealt with injuries throughout the series, and there are still a few question marks tonight. The Heat were able to force a game seven on the road thanks to a 47-point game from Jimmy Butler. Can Butler carry the Heat back to the NBA finals? Let's dive into my prediction, pick, and the odds for tonight's game between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.

Heat vs. Celtics Game 7 Start Time and Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 29, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

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Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 7 Prediction

It is odd to see the Heat as the home dog in this game. The home team has only been the home dog once since 2003; the Rockets in 2018. The Rockets were also without Chris Paul in that game, and the Heat may have a few players out for this game. However, almost all the trends favor the Heat in this spot.

Home teams are 110-34 all-time in game seven, which when you consider that the home team in game seven is always the higher seed, that trend makes a lot of sense. However, any trend that is 76% over a 144 game sample size is notable. When it's the conference finals specifically, home teams are 17-8 in that spot, good for 68%.

Another notable trend that heavily favors Miami is home teams that also won game one. Home teams that won game one are 102-28 in the conference finals at home in the series.

The Heat are in a rare situation, being the home dog in a game seven as the one seed, but given how the market loves the Celtics, it's not surprising. The Celtics have been a very popular bet over the playoffs, and they also have a larger fan base backing them. Larger market teams always draw more bets and, as a result, can skew lines slightly. This is evident in this game seven, where the road team is laying points and yet still is drawing 67% of bets, according to Action Network.

Can Jimmy Butler have another big game to advance the Heat to the finals? I think so, and given the historical trends backing this situation, I am confident backing the home team here and fading the public.

Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 7 Best Bet

Pick: Heat ML @ +130 (Bet $130 to win $100)

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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