Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Same Game Parlay: Fade Jaylen Brown's Scoring in Game 6
Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Same Game Parlay: Fade Jaylen Brown's Scoring in Game 6
The Golden State Warriors' defense has reached new heights in the NBA Finals. The Celtics' offensive rating in the first three rounds was a solid 113.4 points per 100 possessions. Boston's offensive rating has plummeted to just 108.3 points per 100 in this series. The Warriors were the Western Conference's best defense all season long, and they're getting better as the series progresses.
Golden State has made it tough for the Celts to maintain the same ball movement, shooting, and scoring efficiency that carried them through the East. Namely, Jaylen Brown's scoring is down and Marcus Smart has assumed a smaller share of Boston's playmaking load. With a huge elimination game on tap for tonight, look for Jayson Tatum to dominate usage in the C's offense in Game 6.
Warriors vs. Celtics Game 6 Start Time and Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: June 16, 2022
- Game Time: 9:00 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ABC
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Celtics vs. Warriors Game 6 Line Movement
Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Game 6 Prediction
3-Leg Game 6 Same Game Parlay (-150) (Bet $150 to win $100)
*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*
Leg 1: Jaylen Brown Under 30.5 Points
Leg 2: Jaylen Brown 4+ Rebounds
Jaylen Brown has cashed the two of these legs together in 21 of 23 games this postseason. He's averaged 22.6 PPG and 6.9 RPG in these playoffs. He's been the 2nd scoring option for the Celts, and I anticipate he takes an even larger backseat to Jayson Tatum in Game 6. JT took 21 shots in Game 7 against the Heat ... Jaylen took only 15. Tatum took 46 shots in Games 6 and 7 against the Bucks ... Jaylen took only 32. When the Celtics' backs are against the wall, Brown handles the ball less, and Tatum has the ball more.
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And, JB has cashed in all seven of his games against the Warriors this season. He's averaging 21.9 PPG and 7.6 RPG across these contests. Brown hasn't topped the 27-point mark in any of these games and he's grabbed at least 6 rebounds in each of them. After finishing with 18 points and 9 rebounds in 44 minutes in Game 5, there's some nice value on these two lines for Jaylen this evening.
Jaylen hardly subbed out of the game on Monday night. Expect more of the same tonight, as he's a near-guarantee to see 40+ minutes of playing time. He's scored fewer than 31 points and grabbed at least 4 rebounds in 30 of 36 games this season when seeing 36+ minutes. That's an 83.3% hit rate.
Leg 3: Marcus Smart Under 7.5 Assists
This Smart leg is also aided by Tatum's increased usage in elimination games. Even if we just look at these Finals so far, Marcus Smart has averaged only 4.2 assists on 8.4 potential assists per game. Tatum, in comparison, has seen 12 assist opportunities per game this series.
In his 20 games this postseason, Smart has recorded 8+ assists just 4 times. The Warriors are daring Smart to shoot, and this game plan is resulting in more shot attempts and fewer assists for the Boston point guard. He's yet to surpass the 5-assists mark in this series, so coming up with 8+ will be a tall task tonight.
Look for Boston's offense to revolve around Jayson Tatum if they hope to have any chance of forcing a Game 7. This means less scoring for JB and fewer assist chances for Smart.
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