NBA Props Today: 3 Prop Picks to Target on Thursday (3/9)
NBA Props Today: 3 Prop Picks to Target on Thursday (3/9)
With six games scheduled on tonight's NBA slate, there are plenty of angles I love. The Golden State Warriors are in Memphis to face the Grizzlies this evening; this is the first leg of TNT's doubleheader tonight. There is a ton of bad blood between these two teams right now, so this should be must-see TV.
We'll be locking in on the battle in Memphis and an Eastern Conference point guard that has quietly been balling lately. Let's jump into tonight's plays!
Thursday, March 9 NBA Player Props
Tyus Jones Over 15.5 Points (-120) (Bet $120 to collect $220) Best odds available at FanDuel; click here to bet
Tyus Jones has been excellent in relief of Ja Morant this season. He's enjoying higher usage and more scoring volume than ever before, and he's become an undisputed top-three scoring threat for Memphis in Ja's absence.
Jones has scored at least 16 points in 8 of 11 games without Ja this season, averaging 19.1 points per game. He's also averaging 14.3 field goal attempts in 33.6 minutes without Morant, which should lead to plenty of opportunities for him to score 16+ again tonight.
When these two teams squared off in the second round of last year's postseason, Ja was sidelined for the final three games of the series. Jones cashed this over in two of the three games, averaging 15.7 PPG. The Grizzlies need him to show up tonight, and he's well-positioned to do so in a larger role.
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Golden State Warriors Team Total Under 118.5 Points (-104) (Bet $104 to collect $204) Best odds available at FanDuel; click here to bet
You may think: "Steph Curry's back and the Warriors look good. Why would I take their under?" Well, although they've been good recently, they still stink on the road. They're going up against an elite defense that plays even better on their home court.
Memphis has the second-ranked defense in the NBA this season, allowing just 110.1 points per 100 possessions. Now, let's look at their 31 home games, where they have the first-ranked home defense, as their defensive rating is a mind-bogglingly low 106.8 at home. They've held their opponents below 118.5 points in 27 of 31 home games, good for an average of just 107.8 points per game. They've allowed fewer than 118.5 in 7/11 games without Ja Morant this season and in 28/36 games over the last two seasons.
You may be worried that Golden State and Memphis both play at an incredibly high pace. Memphis has held opponents below this mark in 18/24 games against other teams that rank Top 10 in pace. That also improves to an 11/12 hit rate in home games against these same fast-paced opponents. The Warriors have remained under this mark in 12 of their last 15 games against Memphis, and it'll be difficult for them to go nuts on the road tonight.
Terry Rozier Over 21.5 Points (-129) (Bet $129 to collect $229) Best odds available at Caesars; click here to bet
Not many people have been closely paying attention to the Charlotte Hornets recently. And that's fine. They're terrible, and they're an embarrassment to professional basketball.
However, Terry Rozier has been balling in games that have left LaMelo Ball sidelined. T-Ro has cashed this over in 17 of 23 games without LaMelo this season, averaging 22.8 points per game.
Somebody should tell head coach Steve Clifford that the Hornets are tanking because he clearly hasn't gotten the memo. He's played Rozier 36.6 minutes per game since the All-Star break and has shown no signs of slowing down his best guard. Rozier has scored at least 22 points in five straight games against the Detroit Pistons, the NBA's third-worst defense. He should have no issue getting his buckets in a nice matchup tonight.