NBA Props for Today: 3 Props to Target on Tuesday (3/14)
NBA Props for Today: 3 Props to Target on Tuesday (3/14)
Deandre Ayton and Jakob Poeltl have each been slotted into larger roles recently, and they've backed it up with tremendous production.
With the Suns hosting the Milwaukee Bucks and the Raptors hosting the Denver Nuggets, both bigs are in excellent spots to keep their stellar production rolling tonight.
Let's launch into today's picks!
Tuesday, March 14 NBA Player Props
Deandre Ayton Over 17.5 Points (-120) (Bet $120 to collect $220) Best odds available at BetMGM; click here to bet
Deandre Ayton has been the biggest beneficiary of Kevin Durant's recent absence. He was on a tear prior to KD's arrival and has now returned to the second-option role in the Suns' offense.
Ayton has cashed this over in 15 of his last 18 games without KD, averaging 21.9 PPG. On top of his consistent scoring, the Phoenix center is seeing consistent volume. He's taking 15.6 shots per game during this stretch. And, he's fresh off of 27-point (13/19 FG) and 22-point (9/15 FG) performances in his last two games.
This matchup has also been incredibly kind to DA over the last few seasons. Ayton scored 22 against Milwaukee a couple of weeks ago and has scored 17+ points in all six meetings with the Bucks since the 2020 season, averaging 22.7 PPG on 17.0 FGA. The Bucks have recently allowed 18+ points to Domantas Sabonis, JaMychal Green, Moe Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. over the last two weeks. Look for Ayton to hurt Milwaukee with a barrage of mid-range jumpers tonight.
Jakob Poeltl Over 2.5 Assists (-110) (Bet $110 to collect $210) Best odds available at FanDuel; click here to bet
Jakob Poeltl Over 15.5 Points + Assists (-121) (Bet $121 to collect $221) Best odds available at Caesars; click here to bet
It's an excellent day to double up on Jakob Poeltl. As much as I love Nikola Jokic, his pick-and-roll defense has been abysmal lately. Part of it is his fault due to his lack of lateral quickness or leaping ability. But, part of it is Denver's defensive scheme that requires Jokic to come up to the level of the ball when his man sets screens. Denver's lineup around him is flawed defensively, and this has resulted in opposing centers going nuts against the Nuggets.
Jokic and the Nuggets allow passes to be made to the screener too easily on their roll to the basket following ball screens. This makes scoring in the middle of the lane and dump-offs to teammates for layups too easy, which creates some incredible value for Poeltl today.
Take a look at some recent output from big men facing Denver:
- Nic Claxton - 20 points, 5 assists
- Zach Collins - 10 points, 3 assists
- Nikola Vucevic - 25 points, 3 assists
- Jakob Poeltl - 18 points, 4 assists
- Xavier Tillman - 11 points, 4 assists
- Alperen Sengun - 7 points, 8 assists
- Xavier Tillman - 12 points, 4 assists
- Evan Mobley - 31 points + Jarrett Allen - 14 points, 2 assists
- Christian Wood - 17 points, 2 assists
That's all just within Denver's last ten games. Poeltl is averaging 16.7 points and 2.7 assists per game over his last ten games. He's averaging 12.5 points and 4.5 assists over his last four games against Jokic, dating back to his time in San Antonio. He's proven to be a great fit with the Raptors and has a fantastic matchup against a familiar opponent today.