Bet: Ohio State -5 @ -106
I like this Ohio State team a lot and I’m not sure how strong the Irish are this season, so I have no problem laying five and taking the Buckeyes.
Notre Dame is yet to cover the spread this season, losing by 10 to Michigan State before beating Detroit Mercy by eight, and they struggle to get stops defensively. Between Justice Sueing and E.J. Liddell, OSU boasts one of the strongest frontcourts in the country. Add Duane Washington Jr. and CJ Walker to the mix and you can see why I’m not buying the possibility that ND keeps it close.
Prentiss Hubb has put up points for Notre Dame, but he’s done it too inefficiently for me to consider him a threat to Ohio State. Hubb is averaging 20.5 points per game this season but shooting 34.2% from the floor.
Bet: Memphis -43.5 @-110
You read that right, Memphis is a 43.5-point favorite against Mississippi Valley State tonight and I am laying the points. It will be the biggest spread I’ve ever bet in college basketball, and I’ll probably never lay this many points again, but MVSU isn’t just bad, they’re historically terrible.
Make no mistake about it, MVSU is the worst Division I basketball team in the entire country. They are the 357th ranked team on KenPom, which is dead last. If you just take a look at AdjEM (adjusted efficiency margin) on KenPom, you see Mississippi Valley State is -31.92, meaning the average college basketball team would outscore them by almost 32 points. Memphis ranks 52nd in AdjEM at +15.77. That gives us a difference in AdjEM of 47.69, meaning the line is still off by over four points.
If you haven’t been following the Delta Devils lately, let me fill you in. They went 3-27 in 2019 and then proceeded to graduate four of their five starters. They lost by 80 points to Arkansas in their season opener. North Texas beat them by 54 in their next game and they lost by 39 to a below average Grand Canyon team earlier this month. Not only do I think they’ll go the entire season without a win, but I don’t expect them to even compete in any games.
Memphis isn’t a great team, they have their flaws, but Landers Nolley and the rest of the Tigers could easily come away with a 60-point win on Tuesday night.